Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

General Dynamics Corporation (GD)

$220.74

-2.19 (-0.98%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 173.84 | 220.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	36,193	39,350	37,925	38,469	39,407	40,291.10	41,195.04	42,119.26	43,064.21	44,030.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,220	5,477	5,011	5,053	5,095	5,448.86	5,571.11	5,696.10	5,823.89	5,954.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4,457	4,648	4,133	4,163	4,211	4,555.47	4,657.67	4,762.17	4,869.01	4,978.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	763	829	878	890	884	893.40	913.44	933.93	954.89	976.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	963	902	2,824	1,603	1,242	1,588.92	1,624.57	1,661.01	1,698.28	1,736.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	10,335	11,401	11,185	11,539	11,803	11,843.01	12,108.71	12,380.37	12,658.13	12,942.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5,977	6,306	5,745	5,340	6,322	6,254.16	6,394.47	6,537.93	6,684.61	6,834.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,179	3,162	2,952	3,167	3,398	3,340.80	3,415.75	3,492.38	3,570.74	3,650.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-690	-987	-967	-887	-1,114	-974.81	-996.68	-1,019.04	-1,041.91	-1,065.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 220.74
Beta	0.829
Diluted Shares Outstanding	282
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	16.01
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.714
Total Debt	10,496
Total Equity	62,248.68
Total Capital	72,744.68
Debt Weighting	14.43
Equity Weighting	85.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	36,193	39,350	37,925	38,469	39,407	40,291.10	41,195.04	42,119.26	43,064.21	44,030.37
EBITDA	5,220	5,477	5,011	5,053	5,095	5,448.86	5,571.11	5,696.10	5,823.89	5,954.55
EBIT	4,457	4,648	4,133	4,163	4,211	4,555.47	4,657.67	4,762.17	4,869.01	4,978.24
Tax Rate	18.12%	17.09%	15.28%	15.90%	16.01%	16.48%	16.48%	16.48%	16.48%	16.48%
EBIAT	3,649.61	3,853.79	3,501.66	3,500.88	3,536.99	3,804.83	3,890.19	3,977.47	4,066.70	4,157.94
Depreciation	763	829	878	890	884	893.40	913.44	933.93	954.89	976.31
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,066	216	-354	-264	-40.01	-265.70	-271.66	-277.76	-283.99
Inventories	-	-329	561	405	-982	67.84	-140.31	-143.46	-146.68	-149.97
Accounts Payable	-	-17	-210	215	231	-57.20	74.95	76.63	78.35	80.11
Capital Expenditure	-690	-987	-967	-887	-1,114	-974.81	-996.68	-1,019.04	-1,041.91	-1,065.28
UFCF	3,722.61	2,283.79	3,979.66	3,769.88	2,291.99	3,694.04	3,475.89	3,553.87	3,633.60	3,715.12
WACC
PV UFCF						3,423.26	2,984.99	2,828.24	2,679.73	2,539.01
SUM PV UFCF										14,455.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.91
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,789.42
Terminal Value	64,118.84
Present Value of Terminal Value	43,820.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	58,275.71
Net Debt	9,254
Equity Value	49,021.71
Shares Outstanding	282
Equity Value Per Share	173.84