Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI)

$5.05

+0.10 (+2.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -23.80 | 5.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 221.25303.31250.9693.45142.32145.65149.06152.55156.12159.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -33.36-14.97-10.22-17.161.68-12.02-12.30-12.59-12.88-13.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -43.79-24.53-18.90-22.55-3.42-18.04-18.46-18.90-19.34-19.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.439.568.685.395.106.026.166.316.456.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 79.1869.6251.1652.8943.1348.3649.4950.6551.8453.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 52.4978.2282.9120.7434.2737.5338.4139.3040.2241.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.092.682.261.781.602.202.252.312.362.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.9761.5470.119.288.3122.4622.9823.5224.0724.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.48-3.79-11.21-1.48-3.09-3.22-3.29-3.37-3.45-3.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.05
Beta 0.386
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.981
Total Debt 2.10
Total Equity 77.23
Total Capital 79.33
Debt Weighting 2.65
Equity Weighting 97.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 221.25303.31250.9693.45142.32145.65149.06152.55156.12159.77
EBITDA -33.36-14.97-10.22-17.161.68-12.02-12.30-12.59-12.88-13.19
EBIT -43.79-24.53-18.90-22.55-3.42-18.04-18.46-18.90-19.34-19.79
Tax Rate -2.88%0.19%0.19%0.50%-0.69%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%
EBIAT -45.06-24.48-18.86-22.43-3.44-18.14-18.56-19-19.44-19.90
Depreciation 10.439.568.685.395.106.026.166.316.456.61
Accounts Receivable --25.74-4.6962.17-13.52-3.26-0.88-0.90-0.92-0.94
Inventories -3.410.410.480.18-0.60-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.06
Accounts Payable -32.578.57-60.83-0.9714.150.530.540.550.56
Capital Expenditure -3.48-3.79-11.21-1.48-3.09-3.22-3.29-3.37-3.45-3.53
UFCF -38.11-8.46-17.10-16.71-15.74-5.05-16.10-16.48-16.86-17.26
WACC
PV UFCF -4.77-14.35-13.86-13.39-12.94
SUM PV UFCF -59.31

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -17.60
Terminal Value -447.85
Present Value of Terminal Value -335.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -395.07
Net Debt -31.12
Equity Value -363.95
Shares Outstanding 15.29
Equity Value Per Share -23.80