Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI)

$3.88

-0.03 (-0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -19.20 | 3.88 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 171.02221.25303.31250.9693.4590.2887.2284.2681.4178.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -55.70-9.38-39.93-18.750.17-10.34-9.99-9.65-9.32-9.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -68.61-19.81-49.49-27.43-5.22-14.79-14.29-13.80-13.33-12.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.9110.439.568.685.394.454.304.154.013.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8.9879.1869.6251.1652.8925.4524.5923.7622.9522.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 56.8452.4978.2282.9115.992423.1822.4021.6420.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.936.092.682.261.781.681.631.571.521.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.3828.9761.5470.119.2814.8114.3013.8213.3512.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.83-3.48-3.79-11.21-1.48-2.11-2.04-1.97-1.91-1.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.88
Beta 0.689
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -359.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.235
Total Debt -
Total Equity 59.34
Total Capital 59.34
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 171.02221.25303.31250.9693.4590.2887.2284.2681.4178.65
EBITDA -55.70-9.38-39.93-18.750.17-10.34-9.99-9.65-9.32-9.01
EBIT -68.61-19.81-49.49-27.43-5.22-14.79-14.29-13.80-13.33-12.88
Tax Rate 35.08%-2.88%0.19%0.19%-359.92%-65.47%-65.47%-65.47%-65.47%-65.47%
EBIAT -44.54-20.38-49.39-27.38-23.99-24.47-23.64-22.84-22.06-21.32
Depreciation 12.9110.439.568.685.394.454.304.154.013.88
Accounts Receivable -4.35-25.74-4.6966.93-8.010.810.790.760.73
Inventories --1.163.410.410.480.100.060.060.050.05
Accounts Payable -10.5932.578.57-60.835.53-0.50-0.49-0.47-0.45
Capital Expenditure -4.83-3.48-3.79-11.21-1.48-2.11-2.04-1.97-1.91-1.84
UFCF -36.460.36-33.37-25.61-13.51-24.52-21.01-20.30-19.61-18.95
WACC
PV UFCF -22.87-18.28-16.47-14.84-13.37
SUM PV UFCF -85.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) -19.33
Terminal Value -369.55
Present Value of Terminal Value -260.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -346.48
Net Debt -52.89
Equity Value -293.60
Shares Outstanding 15.29
Equity Value Per Share -19.20