Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX)
$7.19
-0.15 (-2.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 739.82 | 751.91 | 733.55 | 674.73 | 873.10 | 918.01 | 965.23 | 1,014.87 | 1,067.07 | 1,121.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 158.51 | 189.44 | 166.54 | 94.51 | 86.45 | 171.17 | 179.98 | 189.24 | 198.97 | 209.20 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 47.99 | 76.72 | 32.83 | -47.01 | -56.23 | 14.24 | 14.98 | 15.75 | 16.56 | 17.41 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 110.52 | 112.72 | 133.71 | 141.51 | 142.69 | 156.93 | 165 | 173.49 | 182.41 | 191.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 279.46 | 208.43 | 291.32 | 253.51 | 186.60 | 301.39 | 316.89 | 333.19 | 350.33 | 368.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 125.70 | 126.20 | 185.25 | 174.70 | 212.78 | 200.66 | 210.98 | 221.83 | 233.24 | 245.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 54.81 | 69.05 | 50.02 | 87.96 | 135.27 | 95.36 | 100.27 | 105.43 | 110.85 | 116.55 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -137.08 | -140.85 | -20.24 | -8.32 | -33.50 | -82.79 | -87.05 | -91.53 | -96.23 | -101.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.19 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.794 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 151.28 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -16.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.568 |
| Total Debt | 469.68 |
| Total Equity | 1,087.67 |
| Total Capital | 1,557.35 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 739.82 | 751.91 | 733.55 | 674.73 | 873.10 | 918.01 | 965.23 | 1,014.87 | 1,067.07 | 1,121.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 158.51 | 189.44 | 166.54 | 94.51 | 86.45 | 171.17 | 179.98 | 189.24 | 198.97 | 209.20 |
| EBIT | 47.99 | 76.72 | 32.83 | -47.01 | -56.23 | 14.24 | 14.98 | 15.75 | 16.56 | 17.41 |
| Tax Rate | 7.74% | 11.65% | -1,503.33% | 12.89% | -16.76% | -297.56% | -297.56% | -297.56% | -297.56% | -297.56% |
| EBIAT | 44.27 | 67.78 | 526.36 | -40.95 | -65.66 | 56.62 | 59.54 | 62.60 | 65.82 | 69.20 |
| Depreciation | 110.52 | 112.72 | 133.71 | 141.51 | 142.69 | 156.93 | 165 | 173.49 | 182.41 | 191.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.49 | -59.05 | 10.55 | -38.08 | 12.12 | -10.32 | -10.85 | -11.41 | -12 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 14.24 | -19.03 | 37.94 | 47.31 | -39.90 | 4.91 | 5.16 | 5.42 | 5.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -137.08 | -140.85 | -20.24 | -8.32 | -33.50 | -82.79 | -87.05 | -91.53 | -96.23 | -101.18 |
| UFCF | 17.71 | 53.40 | 561.74 | 140.73 | 52.75 | 102.98 | 132.07 | 138.87 | 146.01 | 153.52 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 91.30 | 103.82 | 96.78 | 90.22 | 84.10 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 466.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.79 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 156.59 |
| Terminal Value | 1,451.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 795.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,261.27 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 283.07 |
| Equity Value | 978.20 |
| Shares Outstanding | 151.28 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 6.47 |