Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (KOF)

$83.77

+0.32 (+0.38%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 2,057.99 | 83.77 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	182,342	194,471	183,615	194,804	226,740	240,093.35	254,233.11	269,205.59	285,059.86	301,847.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	33,985	32,979	32,099	36,796	32,081	41,351.56	43,786.87	46,365.59	49,096.19	51,987.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	23,957	22,337	22,068	26,962	19,903.33	28,456.72	30,132.61	31,907.20	33,786.31	35,776.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	10,028	10,642	10,031	9,834	12,177.67	12,894.84	13,654.26	14,458.39	15,309.89	16,211.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	23,727	20,491	43,497	47,248	40,277	42,859.56	45,383.68	48,056.45	50,886.62	53,883.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	20,885	23,043	16,994	18,307	16,318	23,602.37	24,992.38	26,464.25	28,022.81	29,673.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	10,051	10,538	9,727	11,960	11,888	13,258.43	14,039.25	14,866.06	15,741.57	16,668.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	25,650	19,832	17,195	22,745	26,834	27,437.93	29,053.83	30,764.89	32,576.72	34,495.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-11,290	-11,745	-9,944	-9,989	-12,909.74	-13,670.03	-14,475.09	-15,327.57	-16,230.25	-17,186.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 83.77
Beta	0.789
Diluted Shares Outstanding	210.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.28
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.85%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.415
Total Debt	80,805
Total Equity	17,598.72
Total Capital	98,403.72
Debt Weighting	82.12
Equity Weighting	17.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	182,342	194,471	183,615	194,804	226,740	240,093.35	254,233.11	269,205.59	285,059.86	301,847.82
EBITDA	33,985	32,979	32,099	36,796	32,081	41,351.56	43,786.87	46,365.59	49,096.19	51,987.60
EBIT	23,957	22,337	22,068	26,962	19,903.33	28,456.72	30,132.61	31,907.20	33,786.31	35,776.07
Tax Rate	19.08%	34.27%	35.89%	31.26%	27.28%	29.55%	29.55%	29.55%	29.55%	29.55%
EBIAT	19,387.19	14,683.04	14,147.84	18,533.13	14,474.46	20,046.68	21,227.28	22,477.42	23,801.17	25,202.89
Depreciation	10,028	10,642	10,031	9,834	12,177.67	12,894.84	13,654.26	14,458.39	15,309.89	16,211.53
Accounts Receivable	-	-2,158	6,049	-1,313	1,989	-7,284.37	-1,390.01	-1,471.87	-1,558.55	-1,650.34
Inventories	-	-487	811	-2,233	72	-1,370.43	-780.83	-826.81	-875.50	-927.06
Accounts Payable	-	-5,818	-2,637	5,550	4,089	603.93	1,615.90	1,711.06	1,811.83	1,918.53
Capital Expenditure	-11,290	-11,745	-9,944	-9,989	-12,909.74	-13,670.03	-14,475.09	-15,327.57	-16,230.25	-17,186.10
UFCF	18,125.19	5,117.04	18,457.84	20,382.13	19,892.39	11,220.63	19,851.51	21,020.62	22,258.58	23,569.45
WACC
PV UFCF						10,572.53	17,624.52	17,584.54	17,544.65	17,504.86
SUM PV UFCF										80,831.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.13
Free cash flow (t + 1)	24,040.84
Terminal Value	582,102.64
Present Value of Terminal Value	432,323.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	513,154.50
Net Debt	80,805
Equity Value	432,349.50
Shares Outstanding	210.08
Equity Value Per Share	2,057.99