Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Spark Networks SE (LOV)

$ 3.1
-0.20 (-6.06%)
Stock DCF: -39.02 | 3.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77.29102.74119.60167.06233.04307.91406.83537.54710.24938.42
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.34-2.472.33-4.84-28.86-7.03-9.28-12.27-16.21-21.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2-6.17-1.75-13.46-38.24-18.07-23.88-31.55-41.69-55.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.343.704.088.629.3811.0514.5919.2825.4833.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 11.1013.6413.7420.9119.2736.8948.7464.4185.10112.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.169.633.526.915.5115.7020.7527.4136.2247.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.8613.7811.6328.9811.1332.5442.9956.8175.0699.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.09-5.01-4.04-4.44-2.73-9.11-12.04-15.90-21.01-27.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.1
Beta 1.662
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.99
After-tax Cost of Debt 33.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.328
Total Debt 40.01
Total Equity 8.08
Total Capital 48.08
Debt Weighting 83.20
Equity Weighting 16.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77.29102.74119.60167.06233.04307.91406.83537.54710.24938.42
EBITDA 3.34-2.472.33-4.84-28.86-7.03-9.28-12.27-16.21-21.41
EBIT 2-6.17-1.75-13.46-38.24-18.07-23.88-31.55-41.69-55.08
Tax Rate 71.27%1.48%-58.64%19.13%-11.99%4.25%4.25%4.25%4.25%4.25%
EBIAT 0.57-6.08-2.78-10.88-42.83-17.30-22.86-30.21-39.91-52.74
Depreciation 1.343.704.088.629.3811.0514.5919.2825.4833.67
Accounts Receivable --4.476.11-3.391.40-10.19-5.04-6.67-8.81-11.64
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.93-2.1517.35-17.8621.4110.4513.8118.2524.11
Capital Expenditure -2.09-5.01-4.04-4.44-2.73-9.11-12.04-15.90-21.01-27.76
UFCF -0.18-3.921.227.26-52.63-4.15-14.89-19.68-26-34.36
WACC
PV UFCF -3.21-8.90-9.10-9.29-9.49
SUM PV UFCF -39.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 29.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) -36.08
Terminal Value -148.21
Present Value of Terminal Value -40.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -80.94
Net Debt 20.74
Equity Value -101.68
Shares Outstanding 2.61
Equity Value Per Share -39.02