Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

$23.5

+0.99 (+4.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.99 | 23.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,881.954,510.854,504.574,583.665,457.705,636.225,820.576,010.966,207.576,410.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -125.0134.56287.27593.51882.77379.95392.38405.21418.47432.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -399.77-237.3842.76393.61736.50107.99111.52115.17118.94122.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 274.77271.93244.52199.90146.27271.96280.86290.04299.53309.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,079.22594.48630.03762.18731.40893.92923.16953.35984.541,016.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,128.61970.08936.361,033.971,072.701,213.171,252.851,293.831,336.151,379.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 600.70542.89495.50514.67777.20685.46707.88731.04754.95779.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 572.17537.97459.36495.361,570.70827.74854.81882.77911.65941.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -297.16-152.41-116.35-121.60-77.13-181.65-187.60-193.73-200.07-206.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.5
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 349.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -91.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.115
Total Debt 2,854.60
Total Equity 8,203.85
Total Capital 11,058.45
Debt Weighting 25.81
Equity Weighting 74.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,881.954,510.854,504.574,583.665,457.705,636.225,820.576,010.966,207.576,410.62
EBITDA -125.0134.56287.27593.51882.77379.95392.38405.21418.47432.15
EBIT -399.77-237.3842.76393.61736.50107.99111.52115.17118.94122.83
Tax Rate -108.69%-26.65%-34.89%31.11%-91.80%-46.18%-46.18%-46.18%-46.18%-46.18%
EBIAT -834.27-300.6357.67271.171,412.62157.86163.03168.36173.87179.55
Depreciation 274.77271.93244.52199.90146.27271.96280.86290.04299.53309.33
Accounts Receivable -158.5333.72-97.61-38.73-140.47-39.68-40.98-42.32-43.70
Inventories -57.8147.39-19.17-262.5391.74-22.42-23.15-23.91-24.69
Accounts Payable --34.20-78.6136.011,075.34-742.9627.0727.9628.8729.82
Capital Expenditure -297.16-152.41-116.35-121.60-77.13-181.65-187.60-193.73-200.07-206.61
UFCF -856.661.02188.34268.692,255.83-543.53221.26228.50235.97243.69
WACC
PV UFCF -498.37186.02176.15166.80157.95
SUM PV UFCF 188.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 248.56
Terminal Value 3,520.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,281.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,470.48
Net Debt 2,123.20
Equity Value 347.28
Shares Outstanding 349.10
Equity Value Per Share 0.99