Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mattel, Inc. (MAT)
$23.5
+0.99 (+4.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,881.95 | 4,510.85 | 4,504.57 | 4,583.66 | 5,457.70 | 5,636.22 | 5,820.57 | 6,010.96 | 6,207.57 | 6,410.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -125.01 | 34.56 | 287.27 | 593.51 | 882.77 | 379.95 | 392.38 | 405.21 | 418.47 | 432.15 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -399.77 | -237.38 | 42.76 | 393.61 | 736.50 | 107.99 | 111.52 | 115.17 | 118.94 | 122.83 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 274.77 | 271.93 | 244.52 | 199.90 | 146.27 | 271.96 | 280.86 | 290.04 | 299.53 | 309.33 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,079.22 | 594.48 | 630.03 | 762.18 | 731.40 | 893.92 | 923.16 | 953.35 | 984.54 | 1,016.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,128.61 | 970.08 | 936.36 | 1,033.97 | 1,072.70 | 1,213.17 | 1,252.85 | 1,293.83 | 1,336.15 | 1,379.86 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 600.70 | 542.89 | 495.50 | 514.67 | 777.20 | 685.46 | 707.88 | 731.04 | 754.95 | 779.64 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 572.17 | 537.97 | 459.36 | 495.36 | 1,570.70 | 827.74 | 854.81 | 882.77 | 911.65 | 941.47 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -297.16 | -152.41 | -116.35 | -121.60 | -77.13 | -181.65 | -187.60 | -193.73 | -200.07 | -206.61 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 23.5 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.269 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 349.10 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -91.80 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.89% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.115 |
Total Debt | 2,854.60 |
Total Equity | 8,203.85 |
Total Capital | 11,058.45 |
Debt Weighting | 25.81 |
Equity Weighting | 74.19 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,881.95 | 4,510.85 | 4,504.57 | 4,583.66 | 5,457.70 | 5,636.22 | 5,820.57 | 6,010.96 | 6,207.57 | 6,410.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -125.01 | 34.56 | 287.27 | 593.51 | 882.77 | 379.95 | 392.38 | 405.21 | 418.47 | 432.15 |
EBIT | -399.77 | -237.38 | 42.76 | 393.61 | 736.50 | 107.99 | 111.52 | 115.17 | 118.94 | 122.83 |
Tax Rate | -108.69% | -26.65% | -34.89% | 31.11% | -91.80% | -46.18% | -46.18% | -46.18% | -46.18% | -46.18% |
EBIAT | -834.27 | -300.63 | 57.67 | 271.17 | 1,412.62 | 157.86 | 163.03 | 168.36 | 173.87 | 179.55 |
Depreciation | 274.77 | 271.93 | 244.52 | 199.90 | 146.27 | 271.96 | 280.86 | 290.04 | 299.53 | 309.33 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 158.53 | 33.72 | -97.61 | -38.73 | -140.47 | -39.68 | -40.98 | -42.32 | -43.70 |
Inventories | - | 57.81 | 47.39 | -19.17 | -262.53 | 91.74 | -22.42 | -23.15 | -23.91 | -24.69 |
Accounts Payable | - | -34.20 | -78.61 | 36.01 | 1,075.34 | -742.96 | 27.07 | 27.96 | 28.87 | 29.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -297.16 | -152.41 | -116.35 | -121.60 | -77.13 | -181.65 | -187.60 | -193.73 | -200.07 | -206.61 |
UFCF | -856.66 | 1.02 | 188.34 | 268.69 | 2,255.83 | -543.53 | 221.26 | 228.50 | 235.97 | 243.69 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -498.37 | 186.02 | 176.15 | 166.80 | 157.95 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 188.55 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.06 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 248.56 |
Terminal Value | 3,520.71 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,281.93 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,470.48 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,123.20 |
Equity Value | 347.28 |
Shares Outstanding | 349.10 |
Equity Value Per Share | 0.99 |