Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)

$35.7

-0.51 (-1.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -171.33 | 35.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,961.972,286.282,500.293,046.153,745.894,407.915,186.946,103.647,182.368,451.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 149.90173.51200.64334.79525.60425.59500.81589.32693.47816.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 139.20161.77187.40319.73511.27403.86475.23559.22658.06774.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.7011.7413.2415.0614.3321.7325.5830.1035.4141.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 151.7021.536.08260.81236.37209.72246.79290.40341.72402.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,414.571,674.461,769.511,916.612,452.433,037.053,573.804,205.414,948.655,823.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 117.23131.51125.03185.67244.50258.75304.48358.29421.61496.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.80-8.14-4.53-11.68-25.30-18.02-21.21-24.96-29.37-34.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.7
Beta 1.882
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.839
Total Debt 1,013.47
Total Equity 1,066.72
Total Capital 2,080.19
Debt Weighting 48.72
Equity Weighting 51.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,961.972,286.282,500.293,046.153,745.894,407.915,186.946,103.647,182.368,451.73
EBITDA 149.90173.51200.64334.79525.60425.59500.81589.32693.47816.03
EBIT 139.20161.77187.40319.73511.27403.86475.23559.22658.06774.36
Tax Rate 40.09%23.80%23.15%22.63%22.05%26.34%26.34%26.34%26.34%26.34%
EBIAT 83.39123.27144.01247.37398.55297.46350.03411.90484.69570.35
Depreciation 10.7011.7413.2415.0614.3321.7325.5830.1035.4141.67
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --259.89-95.05-147.10-535.83-584.62-536.75-631.61-743.24-874.59
Accounts Payable -14.28-6.4960.6458.8414.2445.7353.8163.3274.51
Capital Expenditure -8.80-8.14-4.53-11.68-25.30-18.02-21.21-24.96-29.37-34.56
UFCF 85.29-118.7451.19164.29-89.41-269.20-136.62-160.76-189.18-222.61
WACC
PV UFCF -252.39-120.09-132.49-146.17-161.26
SUM PV UFCF -812.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) -227.06
Terminal Value -4,872.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,529.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,342.21
Net Debt 777.11
Equity Value -5,119.32
Shares Outstanding 29.88
Equity Value Per Share -171.33