Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)

$131.18

+4.19 (+3.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 39.79 | 131.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,500.293,046.153,745.894,131.394,028.114,557.755,157.035,835.106,602.347,470.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 187.40319.73520.34637.46596.32566.22640.67724.90820.22928.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 174.16304.66506.01622.85581.83546.89618.80700.17792.23896.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.2415.0614.3314.6114.4919.3221.8624.7427.9931.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 6.08260.81236.37311.54732.80372.35421.31476.71539.39610.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -0.65-1.66--0.79-1.01-1.14-1.29-1.46-1.65-1.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,769.511,916.612,452.432,828.602,797.153,072.543,476.543,933.664,450.885,036.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 125.03185.67244.50228.60204.68257.40291.24329.54372.87421.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.53-11.68-25.30-9.33-5.77-14.67-16.59-18.78-21.25-24.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 131.18
Beta 2.157
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.340
Total Debt 936.49
Total Equity 3,766.96
Total Capital 4,703.46
Debt Weighting 19.91
Equity Weighting 80.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,500.293,046.153,745.894,131.394,028.114,557.755,157.035,835.106,602.347,470.46
EBITDA 187.40319.73520.34637.46596.32566.22640.67724.90820.22928.07
EBIT 174.16304.66506.01622.85581.83546.89618.80700.17792.23896.39
Tax Rate 23.15%22.63%22.05%22.76%23.37%22.79%22.79%22.79%22.79%22.79%
EBIAT 133.84235.71394.45481.12445.86422.25477.77540.59611.67692.10
Depreciation 13.2415.0614.3314.6114.4919.3221.8624.7427.9931.67
Accounts Receivable -1.01-1.66-0.220.130.150.170.190.22
Inventories --147.10-535.83-376.1731.45-275.39-404-457.12-517.22-585.23
Accounts Payable -60.6458.84-15.91-23.9252.7233.8438.2943.3349.03
Capital Expenditure -4.53-11.68-25.30-9.33-5.77-14.67-16.59-18.78-21.25-24.04
UFCF 142.55153.65-95.1794.31462.34204.37113.04127.90144.72163.75
WACC
PV UFCF 182.2889.9290.7491.5892.42
SUM PV UFCF 546.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 164.56
Terminal Value 1,416.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 799.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,346.24
Net Debt 203.69
Equity Value 1,142.55
Shares Outstanding 28.72
Equity Value Per Share 39.79