Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NOS, S.G.P.S., S.A. (NOS.LS)

3.29 €

+0.07 (+2.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.67 | 3.29 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,576.161,599.231,367.891,430.301,521.011,513.031,505.101,497.201,489.351,481.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 582.71570.31617.09627.98694.64627.36624.07620.80617.54614.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 582.71149207.26208.07311.73208.11207.02205.93204.85203.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -421.31409.83419.90382.90419.25417.05414.86412.69410.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2.1812.82143.492.5015.2138.1437.9437.7437.5537.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 439506.48427.61392.39391.11435.55433.26430.99428.73426.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 38.8834.0843.6344.0167.2246.2546.0145.7745.5345.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 252.64257.82252.61279.14252.19262.40261.03259.66258.30256.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -452.12-438.06-475.84-677.30-470.95-511.95-509.26-506.59-503.94-501.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.29
Beta 0.540
Diluted Shares Outstanding 511.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.806
Total Debt 1,637.63
Total Equity 1,682.96
Total Capital 3,320.60
Debt Weighting 49.32
Equity Weighting 50.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,576.161,599.231,367.891,430.301,521.011,513.031,505.101,497.201,489.351,481.54
EBITDA 582.71570.31617.09627.98694.64627.36624.07620.80617.54614.30
EBIT 582.71149207.26208.07311.73208.11207.02205.93204.85203.78
Tax Rate 16.91%18.49%9.43%7.37%12.65%12.97%12.97%12.97%12.97%12.97%
EBIAT 484.19121.45187.72192.73272.29181.12180.17179.22178.28177.35
Depreciation -421.31409.83419.90382.90419.25417.05414.86412.69410.52
Accounts Receivable --67.4878.8735.221.28-44.442.282.272.262.25
Inventories -4.80-9.55-0.39-23.2120.970.240.240.240.24
Accounts Payable -5.18-5.2226.53-26.9410.21-1.38-1.37-1.36-1.35
Capital Expenditure -452.12-438.06-475.84-677.30-470.95-511.95-509.26-506.59-503.94-501.29
UFCF 32.0747.20185.82-3.30135.3775.1689.1088.6488.1787.71
WACC
PV UFCF 71.3980.3975.9671.7767.81
SUM PV UFCF 367.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 89.46
Terminal Value 2,727.54
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,108.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,476.15
Net Debt 1,622.42
Equity Value 853.73
Shares Outstanding 511.54
Equity Value Per Share 1.67