Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NeoPhotonics Corporation (NPTN)

$16.01

+0.01 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.25 | 16.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 292.89322.54356.80371.16290.29292.45294.63296.83299.04301.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -22.71-8.7119.0430.58-12.41-0.68-0.68-0.69-0.69-0.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -51.06-39.81-13.52-1.98-38.04-27.61-27.82-28.02-28.23-28.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 28.3531.1032.5632.5625.6326.9327.1427.3427.5427.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 91.2265.6778.10122.79105.5183.5484.1684.7985.4286.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 84.1692.8785.2556.8555.3267.7368.2468.7469.2669.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 67.3052.1646.9346.9052.9048.644949.3749.7450.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 69.0258.4058.5543.5458.1252.5452.9453.3353.7354.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -47.41-14.87-9.53-13.87-0.40-15.99-16.11-16.23-16.35-16.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.01
Beta 0.723
Diluted Shares Outstanding 52.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.375
Total Debt 57.04
Total Equity 839.36
Total Capital 896.39
Debt Weighting 6.36
Equity Weighting 93.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 292.89322.54356.80371.16290.29292.45294.63296.83299.04301.26
EBITDA -22.71-8.7119.0430.58-12.41-0.68-0.68-0.69-0.69-0.70
EBIT -51.06-39.81-13.52-1.98-38.04-27.61-27.82-28.02-28.23-28.44
Tax Rate -1.73%-3.14%-10.57%-37.99%-4.38%-11.56%-11.56%-11.56%-11.56%-11.56%
EBIAT -51.95-41.07-14.95-2.73-39.71-30.80-31.03-31.27-31.50-31.73
Depreciation 28.3531.1032.5632.5625.6326.9327.1427.3427.5427.75
Accounts Receivable --8.717.6328.401.53-12.41-0.50-0.51-0.51-0.52
Inventories -15.145.230.03-64.26-0.36-0.37-0.37-0.37
Accounts Payable --10.610.15-15.0114.59-5.580.390.390.400.40
Capital Expenditure -47.41-14.87-9.53-13.87-0.40-15.99-16.11-16.23-16.35-16.47
UFCF -71.01-29.0121.0829.37-4.36-33.59-20.48-20.64-20.79-20.95
WACC
PV UFCF -31.39-17.89-16.84-15.86-14.93
SUM PV UFCF -96.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21.37
Terminal Value -426.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -303.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -400.82
Net Debt -20.80
Equity Value -380.02
Shares Outstanding 52.43
Equity Value Per Share -7.25