Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NuStar Energy L.P. (NS)

$12.9

+0.06 (+0.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -33.31 | 12.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,814.021,961.761,498.021,481.561,618.501,588.761,559.561,530.901,502.771,475.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 599.41322.17177.86315.74528.08366.30359.57352.96346.47340.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 335.1824.29-103.6030.64253.7097.0595.2793.5291.8090.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 264.23297.87281.46285.10274.38269.25264.30259.44254.67249.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 24.2913.6416.19153.635.6443.9543.1542.3541.5840.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 176.78148.31152.53133.47135.13142.49139.88137.31134.78132.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 26.8622.7112.3911.0616.6416.6516.3516.0515.7515.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 145.93143.12109.8371.7382.45103.61101.7199.849896.20
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -347.73-465.13-546.30-208.72-179.87-332.21-326.10-320.11-314.23-308.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.9
Beta 1.969
Diluted Shares Outstanding 109.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.257
Total Debt 3,197.75
Total Equity 1,413.65
Total Capital 4,611.40
Debt Weighting 69.34
Equity Weighting 30.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,814.021,961.761,498.021,481.561,618.501,588.761,559.561,530.901,502.771,475.16
EBITDA 599.41322.17177.86315.74528.08366.30359.57352.96346.47340.11
EBIT 335.1824.29-103.6030.64253.7097.0595.2793.5291.8090.11
Tax Rate 3.64%179.81%151.21%-2.42%14.92%69.43%69.43%69.43%69.43%69.43%
EBIAT 322.99-19.3953.0531.38215.8529.6729.1228.5928.0627.55
Depreciation 264.23297.87281.46285.10274.38269.25264.30259.44254.67249.99
Accounts Receivable -28.47-4.2219.06-1.65-7.372.622.572.522.48
Inventories -4.1410.321.33-5.59-0.010.310.300.290.29
Accounts Payable --2.81-33.29-38.1010.7121.17-1.90-1.87-1.83-1.80
Capital Expenditure -347.74-465.13-546.30-208.72-179.87-332.21-326.10-320.11-314.23-308.45
UFCF 239.49-156.85-238.9890.05313.83-19.50-31.66-31.08-30.51-29.95
WACC
PV UFCF -18.06-27.14-24.66-22.41-20.37
SUM PV UFCF -112.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -30.54
Terminal Value -508.23
Present Value of Terminal Value -345.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -458.38
Net Debt 3,192.11
Equity Value -3,650.49
Shares Outstanding 109.59
Equity Value Per Share -33.31