Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NuStar Energy L.P. (NS)

$23.66

+0.08 (+0.34%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.00 | 23.66 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,498.021,481.561,618.501,683.221,634.191,671.901,710.471,749.941,790.321,831.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 672.38684.58719.45740.35288.69659.37674.58690.15706.08722.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 390.92399.48445.07481.1232.98371.69380.27389.04398.02407.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 281.46285.10274.38259.24255.71287.68294.32301.11308.06315.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 16.19153.635.6414.492.7642.9043.8844.9045.9346.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152.53133.47135.13149.97135.79149.66153.12156.65160.27163.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 12.3911.0616.6415.4018.6215.5715.9316.3016.6717.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 109.8371.7382.4567.7677.0586.9788.9791.0393.1395.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -546.30-208.72-179.87-153.42-147.51-266.87-273.03-279.33-285.77-292.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.66
Beta 1.690
Diluted Shares Outstanding 116,851.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.300
Total Debt 3,410.34
Total Equity 2,764,703.49
Total Capital 2,768,113.82
Debt Weighting 0.12
Equity Weighting 99.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,498.021,481.561,618.501,683.221,634.191,671.901,710.471,749.941,790.321,831.63
EBITDA 672.38684.58719.45740.35288.69659.37674.58690.15706.08722.37
EBIT 390.92399.48445.07481.1232.98371.69380.27389.04398.02407.20
Tax Rate 2.25%-1.36%14.92%2.55%1.94%4.06%4.06%4.06%4.06%4.06%
EBIAT 382.13404.90378.65468.8332.34356.60364.83373.24381.86390.67
Depreciation 281.46285.10274.38259.24255.71287.68294.32301.11308.06315.16
Accounts Receivable -19.06-1.65-14.8414.18-13.88-3.45-3.53-3.61-3.70
Inventories -1.33-5.591.25-3.233.05-0.36-0.37-0.38-0.38
Accounts Payable --38.1010.71-14.689.299.922.012.052.102.15
Capital Expenditure -546.30-208.72-179.87-153.42-147.51-266.87-273.03-279.33-285.77-292.37
UFCF 117.29463.56476.64546.37160.79376.50384.31393.18402.25411.53
WACC
PV UFCF 335.29304.79277.69253.01230.51
SUM PV UFCF 1,401.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) 415.65
Terminal Value 3,681.54
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,062.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,463.46
Net Debt 3,407.57
Equity Value 55.89
Shares Outstanding 116,851.37
Equity Value Per Share 0.00