Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Natura &Co Holding S.A. (NTCO)

$4.28

-0.12 (-2.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2,193.98 | 4.28 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,397.4214,444.6936,921.9840,164.6963,220.4199,510.81156,632.97246,544.94388,069.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,894.792,059.603,688.133,647.717,503.0511,810.0318,589.3429,260.1746,056.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,304.88942.19969.28856.183,322.145,229.148,230.8212,955.5620,392.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 589.911,117.422,718.862,791.524,180.926,580.8910,358.5216,304.6225,663.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,430.425,539.438,342.325,98614,854.9523,382.1336,804.1757,930.8691,184.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,397.642,194.884,910.975,014.119,305.4414,647.0423,054.8836,289.0657,120.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,364.671,430.554,544.275,403.537,246.7811,406.6517,954.4128,260.7744,483.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,736.791,829.766,774.206,770.589,615.0915,134.4423,822.0537,496.6259,020.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -485.02-586.40-674.21-1,479.23-2,084.50-3,281.06-5,164.48-8,129.05-12,795.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.28
Beta 1.612
Diluted Shares Outstanding 687.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1,048.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.301
Total Debt 16,264.69
Total Equity 2,942.84
Total Capital 19,207.53
Debt Weighting 84.68
Equity Weighting 15.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,397.4214,444.6936,921.9840,164.6963,220.4199,510.81156,632.97246,544.94388,069.07
EBITDA 1,894.792,059.603,688.133,647.717,503.0511,810.0318,589.3429,260.1746,056.38
EBIT 1,304.88942.19969.28856.183,322.145,229.148,230.8212,955.5620,392.43
Tax Rate 18.57%48.95%-164.50%-1,048.41%-286.35%-286.35%-286.35%-286.35%-286.35%
EBIAT 1,062.61480.942,563.739,832.5012,834.9820,202.6431,799.5650,053.4578,785.62
Depreciation 589.911,117.422,718.862,791.524,180.926,580.8910,358.5216,304.6225,663.95
Accounts Receivable -202.75-2,716.09-103.14-4,291.33-5,341.60-8,407.84-13,234.18-20,831
Inventories --65.88-3,113.72-859.26-1,843.26-4,159.87-6,547.76-10,306.36-16,222.52
Accounts Payable -92.964,944.45-3.632,844.515,519.358,687.6213,674.5721,524.17
Capital Expenditure -485.02-586.39-674.21-1,479.23-2,084.50-3,281.06-5,164.48-8,129.05-12,795.37
UFCF 1,167.511,241.813,723.0110,178.7811,641.3319,520.3530,725.6248,363.0376,124.85
WACC
PV UFCF 11,641.3318,382.4827,247.9240,388.9659,867.62
SUM PV UFCF 148,345.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 77,647.35
Terminal Value 1,853,158.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,372,443.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,520,789.27
Net Debt 12,257.44
Equity Value 1,508,531.84
Shares Outstanding 687.58
Equity Value Per Share 2,193.98