Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Northern Technologies International... (NTIC)

$13.79

+0.15 (+1.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.39 | 13.79 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 55.7547.6456.4974.1686.3697.53110.15124.40140.49158.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6.671.768.475.207.068.9410.1011.4112.8814.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5.570.697.373.635.436.957.858.8710.0211.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.101.071.111.571.631.992.242.532.863.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 9.4211.957.695.345.4113.4715.2117.1819.4021.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.339.5013.6516.6019.1521.6024.4027.5631.1235.15
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 10.4910.9611.1116.3413.1019.2521.7424.5627.7331.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.513.214.297.806.067.798.809.9311.2212.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.07-0.81-5.64-1.70-3.36-3.86-4.36-4.93-5.56-6.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.79
Beta 0.740
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 47.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.823
Total Debt 6.79
Total Equity 133.67
Total Capital 140.46
Debt Weighting 4.83
Equity Weighting 95.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 55.7547.6456.4974.1686.3697.53110.15124.40140.49158.67
EBITDA 6.671.768.475.207.068.9410.1011.4112.8814.55
EBIT 5.570.697.373.635.436.957.858.8710.0211.31
Tax Rate 21.75%153.73%25.74%30.19%47.88%55.86%55.86%55.86%55.86%55.86%
EBIAT 4.36-0.375.472.532.833.073.473.924.424.99
Depreciation 1.101.071.111.571.631.992.242.532.863.23
Accounts Receivable -2.83-4.15-2.95-2.55-2.45-2.80-3.16-3.57-4.03
Inventories --0.47-0.15-5.233.25-6.16-2.49-2.81-3.18-3.59
Accounts Payable --1.301.093.51-1.741.731.011.141.291.45
Capital Expenditure -1.07-0.81-5.64-1.70-3.36-3.86-4.36-4.93-5.56-6.28
UFCF 4.390.95-2.28-2.280.06-5.68-2.93-3.31-3.74-4.22
WACC
PV UFCF -5.28-2.53-2.65-2.79-2.92
SUM PV UFCF -16.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.37
Terminal Value -106.02
Present Value of Terminal Value -73.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -89.61
Net Debt 1.38
Equity Value -90.99
Shares Outstanding 9.69
Equity Value Per Share -9.39