Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NuVasive, Inc. (NUVA)

$38.84

+1.68 (+4.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.56 | 38.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,029.521,101.711,168.071,050.581,138.991,171.431,204.791,239.101,274.391,310.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 235.16176.35254.63163.86112.20201.71207.45213.36219.44225.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 113.9946.58119.0422.92-37.3357.1658.7860.4662.1863.95
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 121.18129.76135.59140.94149.52144.55148.67152.90157.26161.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 72.80117.84213.031,030.01246.09364.67375.06385.74396.73408.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 199.04196.49211.53207.07214.40219.79226.05232.48239.10245.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 247.25273.24312.42300.62315.84309.04317.85326.90336.21345.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.378.8011.8317.3916.1912.4412.8013.1613.5413.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -112.49-109.60-130.38-109.59-112.46-122.63-126.12-129.71-133.41-137.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.84
Beta 1.060
Diluted Shares Outstanding 51.42
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -9.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.705
Total Debt 1,006.44
Total Equity 1,997
Total Capital 3,003.44
Debt Weighting 33.51
Equity Weighting 66.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,029.521,101.711,168.071,050.581,138.991,171.431,204.791,239.101,274.391,310.69
EBITDA 235.16176.35254.63163.86112.20201.71207.45213.36219.44225.69
EBIT 113.9946.58119.0422.92-37.3357.1658.7860.4662.1863.95
Tax Rate -11.83%-43.06%18.98%21.86%-9.77%-4.76%-4.76%-4.76%-4.76%-4.76%
EBIAT 127.4766.6496.4517.91-40.9759.8861.5863.3465.1467
Depreciation 121.18129.76135.59140.94149.52144.55148.67152.90157.26161.74
Accounts Receivable -2.55-15.044.46-7.33-5.39-6.26-6.44-6.62-6.81
Inventories --26-39.1811.80-15.226.80-8.80-9.05-9.31-9.58
Accounts Payable -4.433.035.56-1.19-3.750.350.360.370.39
Capital Expenditure -112.49-109.60-130.38-109.59-112.46-122.63-126.12-129.71-133.41-137.21
UFCF 136.1667.7950.4671.08-27.6579.4769.4371.4073.4475.53
WACC
PV UFCF 74.6361.2259.1357.1155.15
SUM PV UFCF 307.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 77.04
Terminal Value 1,715.78
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,252.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,560.14
Net Debt 760.35
Equity Value 799.78
Shares Outstanding 51.42
Equity Value Per Share 15.56