Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (OGCP)

$10.6

+0.60 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.76 | 10.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 731.51731.34609.23624.09727.04731.07735.12739.19743.28747.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 370.03347.55258.51289.37348.87343.44345.34347.25349.18351.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 201.52165.9667.5079.73131.98134.88135.63136.38137.13137.89
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 168.51181.59191.01209.64216.89208.56209.71210.88212.04213.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 604.98233.95526.71423.69264.43446.55449.02451.51454.01456.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 230.34246.38244.05243.57264.29264.08265.55267.02268.50269.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---50.9485.7836.4836.6936.8937.0937.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 130.68143.79103.2041.6632.9396.0296.5597.0897.6298.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -243.02-250.25-143.12-95.04-126.27-180.61-181.61-182.62-183.63-184.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.6
Beta 1.354
Diluted Shares Outstanding 269.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.39
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.550
Total Debt 2,274.81
Total Equity 2,861.45
Total Capital 5,136.26
Debt Weighting 44.29
Equity Weighting 55.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 731.51731.34609.23624.09727.04731.07735.12739.19743.28747.40
EBITDA 370.03347.55258.51289.37348.87343.44345.34347.25349.18351.11
EBIT 201.52165.9667.5079.73131.98134.88135.63136.38137.13137.89
Tax Rate 45.41%2.80%23.35%11.74%2.39%17.14%17.14%17.14%17.14%17.14%
EBIAT 110161.3251.7470.37128.83111.77112.38113.01113.63114.26
Depreciation 168.51181.59191.01209.64216.89208.56209.71210.88212.04213.22
Accounts Receivable --16.042.330.48-20.720.21-1.46-1.47-1.48-1.49
Inventories -----34.8449.30-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.21
Accounts Payable -13.11-40.58-61.54-8.7463.090.530.530.540.54
Capital Expenditure -243.02-250.25-143.12-95.04-126.27-180.61-181.61-182.62-183.63-184.65
UFCF 35.4989.7261.38123.91155.15252.31139.35140.12140.90141.68
WACC
PV UFCF 234.05119.92111.85104.3497.32
SUM PV UFCF 667.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 145.93
Terminal Value 3,040.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,088.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,755.86
Net Debt 2,010.37
Equity Value 745.49
Shares Outstanding 269.95
Equity Value Per Share 2.76