Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (OGCP)

$6.53

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.48 | 6.53 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 712.47731.51731.34609.23624.09605.98588.40571.32554.75538.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 353.35369.18346.67251.05289.28284.84276.58268.55260.76253.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 192.64200.67165.0860.0579.64120.78117.28113.88110.57107.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 160.71168.51181.59191.01209.64164.06159.30154.67150.19145.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 464.34604.98233.95526.71423.69405.05393.30381.89370.80360.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 206.96230.34246.3821.5418.65122.10118.56115.12111.78108.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 32.5134.5835.0832.3141.6631.5930.6829.7928.9228.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -222.98-243.02-250.25-143.12-190.71-185.17-179.80-174.58-169.51-164.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.53
Beta 1.129
Diluted Shares Outstanding 277.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.135
Total Debt 2,339.26
Total Equity 1,813.49
Total Capital 4,152.74
Debt Weighting 56.33
Equity Weighting 43.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 712.47731.51731.34609.23624.09605.98588.40571.32554.75538.65
EBITDA 353.35369.18346.67251.05289.28284.84276.58268.55260.76253.19
EBIT 192.64200.67165.0860.0579.64120.78117.28113.88110.57107.36
Tax Rate 5.95%4.51%3.82%23.35%11.85%9.90%9.90%9.90%9.90%9.90%
EBIAT 181.18191.62158.7746.0370.20108.83105.67102.6199.6396.74
Depreciation 160.71168.51181.59191.01209.64164.06159.30154.67150.19145.83
Accounts Receivable --23.38-16.04224.842.89-103.463.543.443.343.24
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -2.080.50-2.789.35-10.07-0.92-0.89-0.86-0.84
Capital Expenditure -222.98-243.02-250.25-143.12-190.71-185.17-179.80-174.58-169.51-164.60
UFCF 118.9195.8074.56315.98101.38-25.8187.8085.2582.7880.38
WACC
PV UFCF -24.3578.1471.5865.5760.06
SUM PV UFCF 251

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 81.98
Terminal Value 2,049.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,531.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,782.55
Net Debt 1,915.56
Equity Value -133.01
Shares Outstanding 277.72
Equity Value Per Share -0.48