Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC)
$257.22
+3.62 (+1.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 566.34 | 737.67 | 841.43 | 1,055.52 | 1,375.22 | 1,719.20 | 2,149.21 | 2,686.79 | 3,358.83 | 4,198.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 205.13 | 269.24 | 239.33 | 323.18 | 484.81 | 574.33 | 717.99 | 897.57 | 1,122.08 | 1,402.74 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 175.48 | 227.03 | 185.95 | 255.96 | 392.11 | 469.76 | 587.26 | 734.16 | 917.79 | 1,147.35 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 29.66 | 42.21 | 53.37 | 67.22 | 92.70 | 104.57 | 130.72 | 163.42 | 204.29 | 255.39 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 45.72 | 133.67 | 151.71 | 277.98 | 400.73 | 342.80 | 428.54 | 535.73 | 669.73 | 837.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.38 | 13.32 | 19.58 | 25.90 | 28.43 | 34.23 | 42.79 | 53.50 | 66.88 | 83.61 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.80 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.61 | 2.26 | 2.83 | 3.54 | 4.42 | 5.53 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.29 | 5.05 | 6.79 | 5.77 | 16.05 | 14.84 | 18.55 | 23.19 | 28.99 | 36.24 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -59.91 | -92.93 | -94.10 | -126.19 | -136.80 | -193.45 | -241.84 | -302.33 | -377.95 | -472.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 257.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.420 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 58.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.77 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.257 |
| Total Debt | 29 |
| Total Equity | 14,963.77 |
| Total Capital | 14,992.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.19 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.81 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 566.34 | 737.67 | 841.43 | 1,055.52 | 1,375.22 | 1,719.20 | 2,149.21 | 2,686.79 | 3,358.83 | 4,198.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 205.13 | 269.24 | 239.33 | 323.18 | 484.81 | 574.33 | 717.99 | 897.57 | 1,122.08 | 1,402.74 |
| EBIT | 175.48 | 227.03 | 185.95 | 255.96 | 392.11 | 469.76 | 587.26 | 734.16 | 917.79 | 1,147.35 |
| Tax Rate | 21.55% | 20.13% | 22.85% | 23.44% | 27.77% | 23.15% | 23.15% | 23.15% | 23.15% | 23.15% |
| EBIAT | 137.67 | 181.33 | 143.47 | 195.96 | 283.22 | 361.02 | 451.33 | 564.22 | 705.34 | 881.77 |
| Depreciation | 29.66 | 42.21 | 53.37 | 67.22 | 92.70 | 104.57 | 130.72 | 163.42 | 204.29 | 255.39 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -5.94 | -6.26 | -6.33 | -2.52 | -5.80 | -8.56 | -10.70 | -13.38 | -16.73 |
| Inventories | - | -0.36 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.48 | -0.66 | -0.57 | -0.71 | -0.89 | -1.11 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.24 | 1.74 | -1.02 | 10.28 | -1.21 | 3.71 | 4.64 | 5.80 | 7.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -59.91 | -92.93 | -94.10 | -126.19 | -136.80 | -193.45 | -241.84 | -302.33 | -377.95 | -472.49 |
| UFCF | 107.42 | 123.06 | 98.22 | 129.67 | 246.40 | 264.46 | 334.79 | 418.53 | 523.22 | 654.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 237.72 | 270.50 | 303.97 | 341.57 | 383.83 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,537.59 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.25 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 667.17 |
| Terminal Value | 7,212.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,232.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 5,770.06 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -371.73 |
| Equity Value | 6,141.79 |
| Shares Outstanding | 58.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 105.57 |