Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA)

$34.575

-0.04 (-0.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 68.61 | 34.575 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3517,2306,2028,62711,61113,289.5115,210.6717,409.5519,926.3122,806.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,4382,4332,4803,3123,2784,609.525,275.886,038.576,911.527,910.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,0211,9221,7802,5892,5953,591.814,111.044,705.355,385.566,164.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4175117007236831,017.721,164.841,333.231,525.961,746.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 157129814394173.67198.77227.51260.40298.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5886676387808621,168.861,337.831,531.231,752.592,005.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 198126221376269390.04446.43510.96584.83669.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 519717434652571968.821,108.871,269.171,452.651,662.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,226-1,645-1,029-658-605-1,830.22-2,094.80-2,397.63-2,744.24-3,140.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.575
Beta 1.482
Diluted Shares Outstanding 550
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.126
Total Debt 11,275
Total Equity 19,016.25
Total Capital 30,291.25
Debt Weighting 37.22
Equity Weighting 62.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,3517,2306,2028,62711,61113,289.5115,210.6717,409.5519,926.3122,806.90
EBITDA 2,4382,4332,4803,3123,2784,609.525,275.886,038.576,911.527,910.67
EBIT 2,0211,9221,7802,5892,5953,591.814,111.044,705.355,385.566,164.11
Tax Rate 26.64%2.36%24.04%25.41%7.70%17.23%17.23%17.23%17.23%17.23%
EBIAT 1,482.691,876.721,352.121,931.252,395.072,973.013,402.793,894.714,457.735,102.15
Depreciation 4175117007236831,017.721,164.841,333.231,525.961,746.56
Accounts Receivable --7929-142-82-306.86-168.97-193.40-221.36-253.36
Inventories -72-95-155107-121.04-56.39-64.54-73.87-84.54
Accounts Payable -198-283218-81397.82140.05160.30183.47210
Capital Expenditure -1,226-1,645-1,029-658-605-1,830.22-2,094.80-2,397.63-2,744.24-3,140.95
UFCF 673.69933.72674.121,917.252,417.072,130.422,387.522,732.673,127.713,579.86
WACC
PV UFCF 1,965.332,031.842,145.362,265.212,391.77
SUM PV UFCF 10,799.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,651.46
Terminal Value 57,053.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 38,118.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 48,918.34
Net Debt 11,181
Equity Value 37,737.34
Shares Outstanding 550
Equity Value Per Share 68.61