Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA)

$30.33

-0.94 (-3.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.11 | 30.33 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,4087,3517,2306,2028,6279,903.0211,367.7713,049.1814,979.2817,194.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,5982,4452,3607002,8282,763.323,172.043,641.214,179.794,798.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2162,0281,849-2,1051,981.542,274.632,611.072,997.283,440.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 382417511700723781.77897.401,030.141,182.511,357.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3211571298143230.94265.10304.31349.32400.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 512588667638780911.481,046.291,201.051,378.701,582.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 168198126221376306.29351.59403.60463.30531.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 465519717434652794.84912.401,047.351,202.271,380.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,839-1,226-1,645-1,029-658-1,934.14-2,220.22-2,548.62-2,925.58-3,358.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.33
Beta 1.621
Diluted Shares Outstanding 550
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.530
Total Debt 11,962
Total Equity 16,681.50
Total Capital 28,643.50
Debt Weighting 41.76
Equity Weighting 58.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,4087,3517,2306,2028,6279,903.0211,367.7713,049.1814,979.2817,194.87
EBITDA 1,5982,4452,3607002,8282,763.323,172.043,641.214,179.794,798.02
EBIT 1,2162,0281,849-2,1051,981.542,274.632,611.072,997.283,440.60
Tax Rate 13.75%26.64%2.36%24.04%25.41%18.44%18.44%18.44%18.44%18.44%
EBIAT 1,048.841,487.821,805.44-1,570.221,616.221,855.272,129.682,444.692,806.28
Depreciation 382417511700723781.77897.401,030.141,182.511,357.41
Accounts Receivable --76-7929-142-131.48-134.82-154.76-177.65-203.92
Inventories --3072-95-15569.71-45.30-52-59.70-68.53
Accounts Payable -54198-283218142.84117.56134.95154.91177.83
Capital Expenditure -1,839-1,226-1,645-1,029-658-1,934.14-2,220.22-2,548.62-2,925.58-3,358.30
UFCF -408.16626.82862.44-6781,556.22544.91469.90539.40619.18710.77
WACC
PV UFCF 505.20403.91429.86457.49486.88
SUM PV UFCF 2,283.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 724.98
Terminal Value 12,371.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,474.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,758.09
Net Debt 11,919
Equity Value -1,160.91
Shares Outstanding 550
Equity Value Per Share -2.11