Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT)

$66.31

-1.71 (-2.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 22.97 | 66.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,996.633,166.703,223.923,329.193,619.873,796.153,981.014,174.884,378.184,591.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 185.81180.22169.65184.72219.12218.32228.95240.10251.80264.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 139.52127.58114.69123.50154.14153.44160.91168.75176.96185.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 46.2952.6454.9661.2264.9864.8868.0471.3674.8378.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 162.43125.76119.70345.99252.29231.32242.58254.39266.78279.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.468.869.8713.1512.3611.6812.2512.8413.4714.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 310.95321.02331.27309.51389.71386.09404.89424.60445.28466.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 272.25255.74286.22373.17388.79364.34382.09400.69420.21440.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -135.29-98.11-140.06-100.32-113.17-137.40-144.09-151.11-158.47-166.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 66.31
Beta 0.708
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.329
Total Debt 267.29
Total Equity 2,016.02
Total Capital 2,283.31
Debt Weighting 11.71
Equity Weighting 88.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,996.633,166.703,223.923,329.193,619.873,796.153,981.014,174.884,378.184,591.39
EBITDA 185.81180.22169.65184.72219.12218.32228.95240.10251.80264.06
EBIT 139.52127.58114.69123.50154.14153.44160.91168.75176.96185.58
Tax Rate 31.65%39.37%34.13%32.69%33.44%34.26%34.26%34.26%34.26%34.26%
EBIAT 95.3677.3575.5583.13102.59100.88105.79110.94116.34122.01
Depreciation 46.2952.6454.9661.2264.9864.8868.0471.3674.8378.48
Accounts Receivable --2.40-1.01-3.280.790.68-0.57-0.60-0.63-0.66
Inventories --10.08-10.2521.76-80.203.63-18.80-19.72-20.68-21.68
Accounts Payable --16.5130.4886.9515.62-24.4517.7418.6119.5120.46
Capital Expenditure -135.29-98.11-140.06-100.32-113.17-137.40-144.09-151.11-158.47-166.18
UFCF 6.352.909.67149.47-9.398.2228.1129.4830.9232.42
WACC
PV UFCF 7.7725.1224.9024.6824.46
SUM PV UFCF 106.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 33.07
Terminal Value 870.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 656.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 763.47
Net Debt 65.23
Equity Value 698.24
Shares Outstanding 30.40
Equity Value Per Share 22.97