Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT)
$66.31
-1.71 (-2.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,996.63 | 3,166.70 | 3,223.92 | 3,329.19 | 3,619.87 | 3,796.15 | 3,981.01 | 4,174.88 | 4,378.18 | 4,591.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 185.81 | 180.22 | 169.65 | 184.72 | 219.12 | 218.32 | 228.95 | 240.10 | 251.80 | 264.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 139.52 | 127.58 | 114.69 | 123.50 | 154.14 | 153.44 | 160.91 | 168.75 | 176.96 | 185.58 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 46.29 | 52.64 | 54.96 | 61.22 | 64.98 | 64.88 | 68.04 | 71.36 | 74.83 | 78.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 162.43 | 125.76 | 119.70 | 345.99 | 252.29 | 231.32 | 242.58 | 254.39 | 266.78 | 279.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 6.46 | 8.86 | 9.87 | 13.15 | 12.36 | 11.68 | 12.25 | 12.84 | 13.47 | 14.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 310.95 | 321.02 | 331.27 | 309.51 | 389.71 | 386.09 | 404.89 | 424.60 | 445.28 | 466.96 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 272.25 | 255.74 | 286.22 | 373.17 | 388.79 | 364.34 | 382.09 | 400.69 | 420.21 | 440.67 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -135.29 | -98.11 | -140.06 | -100.32 | -113.17 | -137.40 | -144.09 | -151.11 | -158.47 | -166.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 66.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.708 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.80% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.329 |
| Total Debt | 267.29 |
| Total Equity | 2,016.02 |
| Total Capital | 2,283.31 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,996.63 | 3,166.70 | 3,223.92 | 3,329.19 | 3,619.87 | 3,796.15 | 3,981.01 | 4,174.88 | 4,378.18 | 4,591.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 185.81 | 180.22 | 169.65 | 184.72 | 219.12 | 218.32 | 228.95 | 240.10 | 251.80 | 264.06 |
| EBIT | 139.52 | 127.58 | 114.69 | 123.50 | 154.14 | 153.44 | 160.91 | 168.75 | 176.96 | 185.58 |
| Tax Rate | 31.65% | 39.37% | 34.13% | 32.69% | 33.44% | 34.26% | 34.26% | 34.26% | 34.26% | 34.26% |
| EBIAT | 95.36 | 77.35 | 75.55 | 83.13 | 102.59 | 100.88 | 105.79 | 110.94 | 116.34 | 122.01 |
| Depreciation | 46.29 | 52.64 | 54.96 | 61.22 | 64.98 | 64.88 | 68.04 | 71.36 | 74.83 | 78.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.40 | -1.01 | -3.28 | 0.79 | 0.68 | -0.57 | -0.60 | -0.63 | -0.66 |
| Inventories | - | -10.08 | -10.25 | 21.76 | -80.20 | 3.63 | -18.80 | -19.72 | -20.68 | -21.68 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -16.51 | 30.48 | 86.95 | 15.62 | -24.45 | 17.74 | 18.61 | 19.51 | 20.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | -135.29 | -98.11 | -140.06 | -100.32 | -113.17 | -137.40 | -144.09 | -151.11 | -158.47 | -166.18 |
| UFCF | 6.35 | 2.90 | 9.67 | 149.47 | -9.39 | 8.22 | 28.11 | 29.48 | 30.92 | 32.42 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 7.77 | 25.12 | 24.90 | 24.68 | 24.46 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 106.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.80 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 33.07 |
| Terminal Value | 870.35 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 656.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 763.47 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 65.23 |
| Equity Value | 698.24 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 22.97 |