Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Regulus Therapeutics Inc. (RGLS)

$ 0.3621
-0.03 (-6.55%)
Stock DCF: -9,270,294,931.45 | 0.3621 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1.190.070.076.8310.01321.5710,334.66332,134.4510,674,111.52343,043,773.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -78.38-66.85-44.04-15.53-13.69-103,515.57-3,326,775.26-106,915,646.93-3,436,046,823.24-110,427,408,057.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -80.66-69.38-46.30-16.46-14.16-107,925.05-3,468,486.90-111,469,964.89-3,582,413,143-115,131,317,564.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.282.522.260.930.474,409.48141,711.654,554,317.96146,366,319.764,703,909,506.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 76.1160.0713.9334.1231.0970,729.672,273,104.8473,052,868.332,347,767,453.5175,452,369,525.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.660.370.031.140.50459.6414,771.78474,734.1715,256,970.10490,327,329.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.554.782.56242.81355.6211,428.75367,296.1811,804,136.43379,360,426.9912,191,856,172.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.845.741.711.320.546,991.45224,690.747,221,093.62232,070,950.517,458,278,326.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.97-0.32-0.02-0.24-0.01-359-11,537.55-370,792.90-11,916,513.52-382,971,993.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.3,621
Beta 1.974
Diluted Shares Outstanding 71.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 38.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.749
Total Debt 4.65
Total Equity 25.81
Total Capital 30.47
Debt Weighting 15.27
Equity Weighting 84.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1.190.070.076.8310.01321.5710,334.66332,134.4510,674,111.52343,043,773.55
EBITDA -78.38-66.85-44.04-15.53-13.69-103,515.57-3,326,775.26-106,915,646.93-3,436,046,823.24-110,427,408,057.93
EBIT -80.66-69.38-46.30-16.46-14.16-107,925.05-3,468,486.90-111,469,964.89-3,582,413,143-115,131,317,564.75
Tax Rate 0.00%0.27%-0.13%-0.01%0.00%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%
EBIAT -80.65-69.19-46.36-16.46-14.16-107,893.69-3,467,479.07-111,437,575.31-3,581,372,208.96-115,097,864,106.74
Depreciation 2.282.522.260.930.474,409.48141,711.654,554,317.96146,366,319.764,703,909,506.82
Accounts Receivable -1.280.35-1.120.64-459.13-14,312.14-459,962.39-14,782,235.94-475,070,359.52
Inventories -0.772.22-240.25-112.80-11,073.13-355,867.44-11,436,840.24-367,556,290.56-11,812,495,745.92
Accounts Payable --0.10-4.03-0.39-0.796,990.92217,699.296,996,402.89224,849,856.887,226,207,375.86
Capital Expenditure -0.97-0.32-0.02-0.24-0.01-359-11,537.55-370,792.90-11,916,513.52-382,971,993.38
UFCF -79.34-65.03-45.58-257.53-126.65-108,384.56-3,489,785.27-112,154,449.99-3,604,411,072.34-115,838,285,322.88
WACC
PV UFCF -94,214.67-2,636,944.31-73,666,475.30-2,057,968,973.66-57,492,044,774.76
SUM PV UFCF -59,626,411,382.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) -121,630,199,589.02
Terminal Value -1,211,456,171,205.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -601,261,424,437.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -660,887,835,819.98
Net Debt -26.43
Equity Value -660,887,835,793.54
Shares Outstanding 71.29
Equity Value Per Share -9,270,294,931.45