Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pernod Ricard SA (RI.PA)

156.05 €

+1.50 (+0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 240.65 | 156.05 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,1828,4488,82410,70112,13713,082.1014,100.7915,198.8116,382.3317,658.01
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,8022,4922,5873,1353,4643,850.574,150.414,473.604,821.955,197.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,5762,1422,2202,7543,0473,385.903,649.563,933.744,240.064,570.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 226350367381417464.67500.85539.85581.89627.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9231,9352,0782,5271,6092,443.162,633.412,838.473,059.503,297.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,5761,2651,5531,8341,8142,140.822,307.522,487.202,680.882,889.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,7566,1676,5557,3698,1049,042.539,746.6710,505.6411,323.7012,205.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,1871,8772,3373,0193,4613,381.713,645.043,928.884,234.824,564.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -388-365-433-506-702-627.05-675.87-728.50-785.23-846.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 156.05
Beta 0.450
Diluted Shares Outstanding 256.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.283
Total Debt 11,870
Total Equity 40,085.85
Total Capital 51,955.85
Debt Weighting 22.85
Equity Weighting 77.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,1828,4488,82410,70112,13713,082.1014,100.7915,198.8116,382.3317,658.01
EBITDA 2,8022,4922,5873,1353,4643,850.574,150.414,473.604,821.955,197.43
EBIT 2,5762,1422,2202,7543,0473,385.903,649.563,933.744,240.064,570.23
Tax Rate 29.51%46.15%34.26%26.27%22.90%31.82%31.82%31.82%31.82%31.82%
EBIAT 1,815.931,153.381,459.502,030.662,349.122,308.602,488.372,682.142,8913,116.12
Depreciation 226350367381417464.67500.85539.85581.89627.20
Accounts Receivable -311-288-28120-326.82-166.70-179.68-193.68-208.76
Inventories --411-388-814-735-938.53-704.14-758.97-818.07-881.77
Accounts Payable --310460682442-79.29263.33283.84305.94329.76
Capital Expenditure -388-365-433-506-702-627.05-675.87-728.50-785.23-846.38
UFCF 1,653.93728.381,177.501,492.661,791.12801.591,705.841,838.671,981.852,136.18
WACC
PV UFCF 759.221,530.301,562.281,594.941,628.28
SUM PV UFCF 7,075.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,200.26
Terminal Value 85,281.41
Present Value of Terminal Value 65,004.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 72,079.91
Net Debt 10,261
Equity Value 61,818.91
Shares Outstanding 256.88
Equity Value Per Share 240.65