Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pernod Ricard SA (RI.PA)

184.85 €

-2.40 (-1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 157.95 | 184.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,9869,1828,4478,82410,70111,233.6711,792.8512,379.8712,996.1113,643.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,5422,5921,2912,6133,3012,971.563,119.473,274.753,437.763,608.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,3262,3669412,2462,9202,595.722,724.932,860.573,002.963,152.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 216226350367381375.84394.54414.18434.80456.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7549231,9352,0782,5271,988.692,087.682,191.602,300.692,415.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,4725,7566,1676,5557,3697,633.048,0138,411.878,830.599,270.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,9512,1871,8772,3373,0192,751.072,888.023,031.773,182.693,341.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -374-388-365-433-506-502.02-527.01-553.24-580.78-609.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 184.85
Beta 0.460
Diluted Shares Outstanding 259.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.995
Total Debt 11,172
Total Equity 48,009.14
Total Capital 59,181.14
Debt Weighting 18.88
Equity Weighting 81.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,9869,1828,4478,82410,70111,233.6711,792.8512,379.8712,996.1113,643.03
EBITDA 2,5422,5921,2912,6133,3012,971.563,119.473,274.753,437.763,608.89
EBIT 2,3262,3669412,2462,9202,595.722,724.932,860.573,002.963,152.44
Tax Rate 20.99%29.54%45.89%34.46%26.16%31.41%31.41%31.41%31.41%31.41%
EBIAT 1,837.731,667.08509.191,472.142,156.241,780.501,869.131,962.172,059.842,162.38
Depreciation 216226350367381375.84394.54414.18434.80456.44
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --284-411-388-814-264.04-379.95-398.87-418.72-439.57
Accounts Payable -236-310460682-267.93136.94143.76150.91158.43
Capital Expenditure -374-388-365-433-506-502.02-527.01-553.24-580.78-609.69
UFCF 1,679.731,457.08-226.811,478.141,899.241,122.351,493.651,568.011,646.061,727.99
WACC
PV UFCF 1,067.181,350.411,347.941,345.481,343.02
SUM PV UFCF 6,454.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,762.55
Terminal Value 55,601.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,213.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 49,667.95
Net Debt 8,645
Equity Value 41,022.95
Shares Outstanding 259.72
Equity Value Per Share 157.95