Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Suez SA (SEV.PA)

19.83 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -10.02 | 19.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 15,32215,871.3017,331.1018,015.3017,208.9017,736.1118,279.4718,839.4819,416.6520,011.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,282.902,057.602,146.902,634.402,0602,371.142,443.782,518.652,595.812,675.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,092.40957.201,043.201,159.60317.30974.081,003.921,034.681,066.381,099.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,190.501,100.401,103.701,474.801,742.701,397.061,439.861,483.971,529.431,576.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 2,968.203,095.503,437.603,715.505,355.603,918.124,038.164,161.874,289.374,420.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 262.70471499.50528483.10471.86486.32501.22516.57532.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,788.703,391.603,527.203,260.703,008.903,387.813,491.603,598.573,708.823,822.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,086.40-1,177.20-1,342.90-1,417.30-1,323.50-1,341.35-1,382.44-1,424.80-1,468.45-1,513.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.83
Beta 0.686
Diluted Shares Outstanding 627.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 385.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -7.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.204
Total Debt 15,177.70
Total Equity 12,449.27
Total Capital 27,626.97
Debt Weighting 54.94
Equity Weighting 45.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 15,32215,871.3017,331.1018,015.3017,208.9017,736.1118,279.4718,839.4819,416.6520,011.50
EBITDA 2,282.902,057.602,146.902,634.402,0602,371.142,443.782,518.652,595.812,675.34
EBIT 1,092.40957.201,043.201,159.60317.30974.081,003.921,034.681,066.381,099.05
Tax Rate 51.48%59.52%58.64%62.95%385.61%123.64%123.64%123.64%123.64%123.64%
EBIAT 530387.45431.42429.66-906.23-230.28-237.34-244.61-252.10-259.83
Depreciation 1,190.501,100.401,103.701,474.801,742.701,397.061,439.861,483.971,529.431,576.29
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --208.30-28.50-28.5044.9011.24-14.46-14.90-15.36-15.83
Accounts Payable -602.90135.60-266.50-251.80378.91103.79106.97110.25113.62
Capital Expenditure -1,086.40-1,177.20-1,342.90-1,417.30-1,323.50-1,341.35-1,382.44-1,424.80-1,468.45-1,513.43
UFCF 634.10705.25299.32192.16-693.93215.57-90.59-93.37-96.23-99.17
WACC
PV UFCF 217.31-92.06-95.64-99.37-103.24
SUM PV UFCF -172.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -0.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) -101.16
Terminal Value 3,612.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,760.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,587.79
Net Debt 9,877
Equity Value -6,289.21
Shares Outstanding 627.80
Equity Value Per Share -10.02