Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC)

$38

-0.98 (-2.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 165.19 | 38 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27.9432.0930.9934.9337.2540.1243.2046.5350.1153.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.5015.0917.4720.6015.3819.9321.4723.1224.9026.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.5614.1015.9518.7813.8418.2719.6721.1922.8224.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.940.991.521.821.551.661.791.932.082.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 66.1266.7765.08204.05192.01140.75151.58163.24175.80189.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.982.292.212.252.222.712.913.143.383.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.080.140.230.370.200.240.260.280.300.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.47-0.64-0.65-0.41-1.32-1.42-1.53-1.64-1.77-1.91
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38
Beta 0.797
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.88
After-tax Cost of Debt 17.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.613
Total Debt 17.88
Total Equity 100.01
Total Capital 117.88
Debt Weighting 15.16
Equity Weighting 84.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 27.9432.0930.9934.9337.2540.1243.2046.5350.1153.96
EBITDA 12.5015.0917.4720.6015.3819.9321.4723.1224.9026.81
EBIT 11.5614.1015.9518.7813.8418.2719.6721.1922.8224.57
Tax Rate 37.45%19.51%19.82%21.11%19.88%23.55%23.55%23.55%23.55%23.55%
EBIAT 7.2311.3512.7914.8111.0913.9715.0416.2017.4418.79
Depreciation 0.940.991.521.821.551.661.791.932.082.24
Accounts Receivable --0.310.08-0.050.04-0.49-0.21-0.22-0.24-0.26
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.060.090.14-0.170.040.020.020.020.02
Capital Expenditure -2.47-0.64-0.65-0.41-1.32-1.42-1.53-1.64-1.77-1.91
UFCF 5.7011.4513.8316.3311.1813.7715.1216.2817.5318.88
WACC
PV UFCF 12.7112.8912.8212.7412.67
SUM PV UFCF 63.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 19.26
Terminal Value 305.70
Present Value of Terminal Value 205.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 269.03
Net Debt -165.71
Equity Value 434.74
Shares Outstanding 2.63
Equity Value Per Share 165.19