Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

$65.31

+1.09 (+1.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.64 | 65.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,484.933,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.423,924.974,330.504,777.935,271.585,816.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 109.94112.18117.69117.94149.47148.04163.33180.21198.83219.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 93.5990.3393.4989.47121.29119.43131.77145.38160.40176.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 16.3621.8524.2028.4728.1828.6131.5734.8338.4342.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 110.61115.38248.16210.53232.27218.29240.84265.73293.18323.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 402.66544.40476.67498.60563.76602.88665.17733.90809.72893.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 736.67853.25670.19851.501,040.961,012.201,116.781,232.171,359.471,499.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 396.89527.16360.47417.67612.34562.67620.80684.94755.71833.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -29.37-24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-43.87-48.41-53.41-58.93-65.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 65.31
Beta 1.358
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.258
Total Debt 119.05
Total Equity 3,494.54
Total Capital 3,613.59
Debt Weighting 3.29
Equity Weighting 96.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,484.933,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.423,924.974,330.504,777.935,271.585,816.24
EBITDA 109.94112.18117.69117.94149.47148.04163.33180.21198.83219.37
EBIT 93.5990.3393.4989.47121.29119.43131.77145.38160.40176.97
Tax Rate 26.77%47.67%19.67%0.61%5.70%20.08%20.08%20.08%20.08%20.08%
EBIAT 68.5447.2775.1188.92114.3795.44105.30116.19128.19141.43
Depreciation 16.3621.8524.2028.4728.1828.6131.5734.8338.4342.40
Accounts Receivable --141.7467.72-21.93-65.15-39.13-62.29-68.73-75.83-83.66
Inventories --116.58183.06-181.31-189.4728.76-104.58-115.39-127.31-140.46
Accounts Payable -130.26-166.6957.20194.66-49.6758.1364.1470.7778.08
Capital Expenditure -29.36-24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-43.87-48.41-53.41-58.93-65.01
UFCF 55.53-83.76158.56-72.9924.5920.15-20.27-22.36-24.67-27.22
WACC
PV UFCF 18.48-17.05-17.26-17.47-17.68
SUM PV UFCF -50.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) -27.77
Terminal Value -395.55
Present Value of Terminal Value -256.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -307.82
Net Debt -113.22
Equity Value -194.61
Shares Outstanding 53.51
Equity Value Per Share -3.64