Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

$55.07

+0.62 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.03 | 55.07 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.425,196.105,873.636,639.497,505.238,483.849,590.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 112.18117.69117.94149.47376.92254.77287.99325.55368415.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 90.3393.4989.47121.29344.45212.35240.04271.34306.72346.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.8524.2028.4728.1832.4742.4247.9554.2161.2869.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 115.38248.16210.53232.27267.40334.83378.49427.84483.63546.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 544.40476.67498.60563.76993.31936.411,058.511,196.531,352.551,528.91
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 853.25670.19851.501,040.961,545.611,515.911,713.571,9372,189.572,475.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 527.16360.47417.67612.34723.63817.99924.651,045.211,181.501,335.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-45.18-61.99-70.07-79.21-89.53-101.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 55.07
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.793
Total Debt 596.76
Total Equity 2,952.58
Total Capital 3,549.34
Debt Weighting 16.81
Equity Weighting 83.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.425,196.105,873.636,639.497,505.238,483.849,590.06
EBITDA 112.18117.69117.94149.47376.92254.77287.99325.55368415.98
EBIT 90.3393.4989.47121.29344.45212.35240.04271.34306.72346.71
Tax Rate 47.67%19.67%0.61%5.70%15.34%17.80%17.80%17.80%17.80%17.80%
EBIAT 47.2775.1188.92114.37291.61174.56197.32223.05252.13285.01
Depreciation 21.8524.2028.4728.1832.4742.4247.9554.2161.2869.27
Accounts Receivable -67.72-21.93-65.15-429.5656.90-122.10-138.02-156.02-176.36
Inventories -183.06-181.31-189.47-504.6429.70-197.66-223.43-252.57-285.50
Accounts Payable --166.6957.20194.66111.3094.36106.66120.57136.29154.06
Capital Expenditure -24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-45.18-61.99-70.07-79.21-89.53-101.21
UFCF 44.30158.56-72.9924.59-544335.95-37.90-42.84-48.43-54.74
WACC
PV UFCF 310.20-32.31-33.73-35.20-36.74
SUM PV UFCF 172.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) -55.83
Terminal Value -886.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -594.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -422.65
Net Debt 329.37
Equity Value -752.02
Shares Outstanding 53.62
Equity Value Per Share -14.03