Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Strategic Education, Inc. (STRA)
$97.8
+1.73 (+1.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 454.85 | 634.18 | 997.14 | 1,027.65 | 1,131.69 | 1,442.45 | 1,838.56 | 2,343.43 | 2,986.95 | 3,807.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 72.02 | 35.40 | 228.59 | 223.11 | 180.01 | 236.44 | 301.37 | 384.13 | 489.61 | 624.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 53.29 | -19.14 | 123.72 | 113.96 | 76.60 | 112.40 | 143.27 | 182.62 | 232.76 | 296.68 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.73 | 54.54 | 104.86 | 109.15 | 103.42 | 124.04 | 158.10 | 201.51 | 256.85 | 327.38 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 155.93 | 348.85 | 454.57 | 195.07 | 275.42 | 514.08 | 655.25 | 835.18 | 1,064.53 | 1,356.85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 23.12 | 55.69 | 51.52 | 51.60 | 51.59 | 82.54 | 105.21 | 134.10 | 170.93 | 217.86 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 46.18 | 85.98 | 47.50 | 64.05 | 45.34 | 111.68 | 142.35 | 181.44 | 231.26 | 294.77 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -18.05 | -27.55 | -38.69 | -46.81 | -49.43 | -60.92 | -77.64 | -98.97 | -126.14 | -160.78 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 97.8 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.533 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.12 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.08 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.60% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.048 |
| Total Debt | 331.46 |
| Total Equity | 2,359.13 |
| Total Capital | 2,690.59 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 454.85 | 634.18 | 997.14 | 1,027.65 | 1,131.69 | 1,442.45 | 1,838.56 | 2,343.43 | 2,986.95 | 3,807.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 72.02 | 35.40 | 228.59 | 223.11 | 180.01 | 236.44 | 301.37 | 384.13 | 489.61 | 624.06 |
| EBIT | 53.29 | -19.14 | 123.72 | 113.96 | 76.60 | 112.40 | 143.27 | 182.62 | 232.76 | 296.68 |
| Tax Rate | 60.85% | 18.12% | 34.42% | 24.30% | 28.08% | 33.15% | 33.15% | 33.15% | 33.15% | 33.15% |
| EBIAT | 20.86 | -15.67 | 81.14 | 86.27 | 55.09 | 75.14 | 95.77 | 122.07 | 155.59 | 198.32 |
| Depreciation | 18.73 | 54.54 | 104.86 | 109.15 | 103.42 | 124.04 | 158.10 | 201.51 | 256.85 | 327.38 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -32.57 | 4.17 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -30.95 | -22.67 | -28.89 | -36.82 | -46.94 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 39.80 | -38.48 | 16.55 | -18.71 | 66.34 | 30.67 | 39.09 | 49.82 | 63.51 |
| Capital Expenditure | -18.05 | -27.55 | -38.69 | -46.81 | -49.43 | -60.92 | -77.64 | -98.97 | -126.14 | -160.78 |
| UFCF | 21.55 | 18.55 | 113.01 | 165.08 | 90.37 | 173.65 | 184.23 | 234.82 | 299.30 | 381.49 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 164.21 | 164.74 | 198.56 | 239.32 | 288.45 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,055.28 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.75 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 389.12 |
| Terminal Value | 10,376.43 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,845.96 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,901.24 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 62.54 |
| Equity Value | 8,838.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.12 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 366.42 |