Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Summer Infant, Inc. (SUMR)
$11.99
-0.01 (-0.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 189.87 | 173.62 | 173.18 | 155.30 | 143.67 | 134.10 | 125.17 | 116.84 | 109.06 | 101.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 5.36 | 3.81 | 7.36 | 8.87 | 4.90 | 4.93 | 4.60 | 4.30 | 4.01 | 3.74 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1.16 | -0.37 | 1.80 | 3.09 | -0.33 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.20 | 4.18 | 5.55 | 5.78 | 5.24 | 4.07 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.31 | 3.09 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 36.64 | 31.22 | 32.79 | 25.99 | 30.93 | 25.34 | 23.65 | 22.08 | 20.61 | 19.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 34.03 | 36.07 | 28.06 | 25.12 | 28.62 | 24.41 | 22.78 | 21.26 | 19.85 | 18.53 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 24.64 | 28.12 | 25.40 | 27.99 | 27.98 | 21.82 | 20.36 | 19.01 | 17.74 | 16.56 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.10 | -3.47 | -2.33 | -1.28 | -1.25 | -1.79 | -1.67 | -1.56 | -1.45 | -1.36 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.99 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.559 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -68.39 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.616 |
| Total Debt | 54.71 |
| Total Equity | 25.81 |
| Total Capital | 80.53 |
| Debt Weighting | 67.94 |
| Equity Weighting | 32.06 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 189.87 | 173.62 | 173.18 | 155.30 | 143.67 | 134.10 | 125.17 | 116.84 | 109.06 | 101.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5.36 | 3.81 | 7.36 | 8.87 | 4.90 | 4.93 | 4.60 | 4.30 | 4.01 | 3.74 |
| EBIT | 1.16 | -0.37 | 1.80 | 3.09 | -0.33 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| Tax Rate | -2,820.78% | 11.71% | -35.68% | -11.88% | -68.39% | -585.00% | -585.00% | -585.00% | -585.00% | -585.00% |
| EBIAT | 33.88 | -0.33 | 2.44 | 3.46 | -0.56 | 5.87 | 5.48 | 5.11 | 4.77 | 4.46 |
| Depreciation | 4.20 | 4.18 | 5.55 | 5.78 | 5.24 | 4.07 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.31 | 3.09 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 5.42 | -1.56 | 6.79 | -4.94 | 5.59 | 1.69 | 1.57 | 1.47 | 1.37 |
| Inventories | - | -2.03 | 8.01 | 2.93 | -3.50 | 4.22 | 1.62 | 1.52 | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.48 | -2.72 | 2.59 | -0 | -6.17 | -1.45 | -1.36 | -1.27 | -1.18 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.10 | -3.47 | -2.33 | -1.28 | -1.25 | -1.79 | -1.67 | -1.56 | -1.45 | -1.36 |
| UFCF | 34.98 | 7.24 | 9.39 | 20.28 | -5.01 | 11.79 | 9.47 | 8.84 | 8.25 | 7.70 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 11.06 | 8.33 | 7.30 | 6.39 | 5.59 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 38.68 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.61 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 7.86 |
| Terminal Value | 170.46 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 123.78 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 162.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 54.18 |
| Equity Value | 108.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 50.29 |