Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)

$6.91

-0.11 (-1.57%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 240.30 | 6.91 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,8623,0382,3086,66715,00225,072.7941,904.0570,034.09117,047.71195,621.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,5507633743,2758,5459,404.1015,717.0426,267.8243,901.3173,372.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 990376-2,9162,7298,543.83478.99800.531,337.932,236.083,737.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5603873,2905461.178,925.1114,916.5024,929.8941,665.2469,634.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2015132850335.26560.31936.451,565.082,615.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5813453681,1601,4013,464.195,789.689,676.2716,171.9227,028.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1302782411831451,337.392,235.183,735.656,243.3810,434.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6095255731,2821,8354,479.887,487.2112,513.3520,913.5234,952.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,290-1,099-896-1,032-2,115-6,918.90-11,563.54-19,326.09-32,299.63-53,982.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.91
Beta 1.109
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,113.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.519
Total Debt 4,567
Total Equity 7,692.10
Total Capital 12,259.10
Debt Weighting 37.25
Equity Weighting 62.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,8623,0382,3086,66715,00225,072.7941,904.0570,034.09117,047.71195,621.40
EBITDA 1,5507633743,2758,5459,404.1015,717.0426,267.8243,901.3173,372.10
EBIT 990376-2,9162,7298,543.83478.99800.531,337.932,236.083,737.15
Tax Rate 0.19%-85.63%-15.05%-564.00%2.68%-132.36%-132.36%-132.36%-132.36%-132.36%
EBIAT 988.16697.95-3,354.7518,120.568,314.491,112.981,860.123,108.825,195.768,683.65
Depreciation 5603873,2905461.178,925.1114,916.5024,929.8941,665.2469,634.95
Accounts Receivable -236-23-792-241-2,063.19-2,325.50-3,886.59-6,495.65-10,856.15
Inventories --148375838-1,192.39-897.79-1,500.47-2,507.73-4,191.16
Accounts Payable --84487095532,644.883,007.335,026.148,400.1714,039.17
Capital Expenditure -1,290-1,099-896-1,032-2,115-6,918.90-11,563.54-19,326.09-32,299.63-53,982.25
UFCF 258.16-10.05-898.7517,609.566,550.672,508.494,997.148,351.6913,958.1523,328.21
WACC
PV UFCF 2,332.834,321.776,717.1610,440.2116,226.81
SUM PV UFCF 40,038.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 23,444.85
Terminal Value 333,497.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 231,976.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 272,015.26
Net Debt 4,517
Equity Value 267,498.26
Shares Outstanding 1,113.18
Equity Value Per Share 240.30