Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)

$6.12

+0.02 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -663.52 | 6.12 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2033,8623,0382,3086,6679,401.7113,258.1518,696.4526,365.4737,180.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,5921,222545-2,254657215.84304.37429.22605.28853.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,5921,222545-2,611-374.25-1,238.41-1,746.39-2,462.73-3,472.91-4,897.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---3571,031.251,454.252,050.762,891.964,078.195,751.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 91620151328657.19926.761,306.901,842.982,598.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4285813453681,1601,374.651,938.512,733.663,854.965,436.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5336095255731,2821,762.752,485.813,505.454,943.346,971.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,268-1,290-1,099-896-2,466.57-3,478.32-4,905.08-6,917.07-9,754.36-13,755.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.12
Beta 1.197
Diluted Shares Outstanding 573.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.456
Total Debt 5,611
Total Equity 3,512.20
Total Capital 9,123.20
Debt Weighting 61.50
Equity Weighting 38.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,2033,8623,0382,3086,6679,401.7113,258.1518,696.4526,365.4737,180.20
EBITDA 1,5921,222545-2,254657215.84304.37429.22605.28853.56
EBIT 1,5921,222545-2,611-374.25-1,238.41-1,746.39-2,462.73-3,472.91-4,897.45
Tax Rate -9.76%0.19%-85.63%-15.05%0.00%-22.05%-22.05%-22.05%-22.05%-22.05%
EBIAT 1,747.361,219.731,011.66-3,003.86-374.25-1,511.47-2,131.45-3,005.74-4,238.65-5,977.28
Depreciation ---3571,031.251,454.252,050.762,891.964,078.195,751.01
Accounts Receivable --153236-23-792-214.65-563.86-795.15-1,121.31-1,581.25
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -76-8448709480.75723.061,019.641,437.892,027.69
Capital Expenditure -1,268-1,290-1,099-896-2,466.57-3,478.32-4,905.08-6,917.07-9,754.36-13,755.45
UFCF 479.36-147.2764.66-3,517.86-1,892.57-3,269.43-4,826.57-6,806.36-9,598.23-13,535.29
WACC
PV UFCF -3,109.90-4,367.02-5,857.81-7,857.50-10,539.84
SUM PV UFCF -31,732.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -13,805.99
Terminal Value -441,086.10
Present Value of Terminal Value -343,470.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -375,203.05
Net Debt 5,583
Equity Value -380,786.05
Shares Outstanding 573.89
Equity Value Per Share -663.52