Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

$42.93

-0.14 (-0.33%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,414.45 | 42.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	41,303	43,259	15,355	24,634	44,955	54,300.33	65,588.38	79,223.02	95,692.05	115,584.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,804	4,653	-10,252	-292	2,783	-4,538.98	-5,482.55	-6,622.27	-7,998.92	-9,661.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,564	2,365	-12,740	-2,777	327	-9,150.87	-11,053.17	-13,350.92	-16,126.34	-19,478.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,240	2,288	2,488	2,485	2,456	4,611.89	5,570.62	6,728.65	8,127.42	9,816.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	3,950	4,944	11,683	18,406	16,414	22,622.41	27,325.20	33,005.61	39,866.88	48,154.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,346	1,364	1,295	1,663	1,801	2,780.47	3,358.48	4,056.65	4,899.96	5,918.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	985	1,072	932	983	1,109	1,888.56	2,281.15	2,755.36	3,328.15	4,020.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,363	2,703	1,595	2,562	3,395	4,377.62	5,287.64	6,386.85	7,714.56	9,318.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,177	-4,528	-1,767	-2,107	-4,819	-5,577.81	-6,737.34	-8,137.90	-9,829.63	-11,873.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 42.93
Beta	1.416
Diluted Shares Outstanding	323.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.56
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.227
Total Debt	36,433
Total Equity	13,901.20
Total Capital	50,334.20
Debt Weighting	72.38
Equity Weighting	27.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	41,303	43,259	15,355	24,634	44,955	54,300.33	65,588.38	79,223.02	95,692.05	115,584.69
EBITDA	3,804	4,653	-10,252	-292	2,783	-4,538.98	-5,482.55	-6,622.27	-7,998.92	-9,661.75
EBIT	1,564	2,365	-12,740	-2,777	327	-9,150.87	-11,053.17	-13,350.92	-16,126.34	-19,478.71
Tax Rate	19.90%	23.12%	19.87%	23.19%	25.56%	22.33%	22.33%	22.33%	22.33%	22.33%
EBIAT	1,252.73	1,818.16	-10,208.46	-2,132.98	243.43	-7,107.63	-8,585.18	-10,369.88	-12,525.59	-15,129.43
Depreciation	2,240	2,288	2,488	2,485	2,456	4,611.89	5,570.62	6,728.65	8,127.42	9,816.96
Accounts Receivable	-	-18	69	-368	-138	-979.47	-578.01	-698.17	-843.30	-1,018.61
Inventories	-	-87	140	-51	-126	-779.56	-392.60	-474.21	-572.79	-691.86
Accounts Payable	-	340	-1,108	967	833	982.62	910.03	1,099.21	1,327.71	1,603.72
Capital Expenditure	-4,177	-4,528	-1,767	-2,107	-4,819	-5,577.81	-6,737.34	-8,137.90	-9,829.63	-11,873.03
UFCF	-684.27	-186.84	-10,386.46	-1,206.98	-1,550.57	-8,849.96	-9,812.47	-11,852.30	-14,316.18	-17,292.26
WACC
PV UFCF						-8,383.03	-8,804.35	-10,073.52	-11,525.64	-13,187.09
SUM PV UFCF										-51,973.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.57
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-17,638.10
Terminal Value	-494,064.52
Present Value of Terminal Value	-376,774.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-428,747.75
Net Debt	29,267
Equity Value	-458,014.75
Shares Outstanding	323.81
Equity Value Per Share	-1,414.45