Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Select Energy Services, Inc. (WTTR)

$6.3

-0.75 (-10.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -21.35 | 6.3 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 692.491,528.931,291.59605.11764.62914.631,094.071,308.711,565.461,872.58
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 92.41177.24128.09-400.9752.09-45-53.82-64.38-77.01-92.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -11.0443.537.42-401.07-40.37-127.56-152.59-182.52-218.33-261.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 103.45133.71120.670.1092.4682.5698.76118.14141.32169.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2.7717.2479.27169.0485.8085.65102.45122.55146.60175.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 381.30342.83272.30129.39233.04275.17329.16393.74470.98563.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 44.6044.9937.5433.3844.4643.2151.6961.8373.9588.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 55.35121.4486.0212.9990.0466.8079.9195.59114.34136.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -98.72-165.36-110.140.01-39.99-71.03-84.96-101.63-121.57-145.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.3
Beta 2.229
Diluted Shares Outstanding 85.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.218
Total Debt 67.31
Total Equity 536.11
Total Capital 603.42
Debt Weighting 11.15
Equity Weighting 88.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 692.491,528.931,291.59605.11764.62914.631,094.071,308.711,565.461,872.58
EBITDA 92.41177.24128.09-400.9752.09-45-53.82-64.38-77.01-92.12
EBIT -11.0443.537.42-401.07-40.37-127.56-152.59-182.52-218.33-261.16
Tax Rate 53.26%34.80%54.25%-0.37%14.97%31.38%31.38%31.38%31.38%31.38%
EBIAT -5.1628.383.40-402.54-34.32-87.53-104.70-125.24-149.81-179.20
Depreciation 103.45133.71120.670.1092.4682.5698.76118.14141.32169.04
Accounts Receivable -38.4770.53142.91-103.65-42.13-53.99-64.58-77.25-92.40
Inventories --0.397.454.16-11.071.25-8.48-10.14-12.13-14.51
Accounts Payable -66.09-35.42-73.0377.04-23.2413.1115.6818.7522.43
Capital Expenditure -98.72-165.36-110.140.01-39.99-71.03-84.96-101.63-121.57-145.42
UFCF -0.43100.9056.48-328.39-19.54-140.11-140.26-167.77-200.69-240.06
WACC
PV UFCF -124.13-110.09-116.68-123.65-131.05
SUM PV UFCF -605.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -244.86
Terminal Value -2,252.61
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,229.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,835.29
Net Debt -18.49
Equity Value -1,816.80
Shares Outstanding 85.10
Equity Value Per Share -21.35