Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. (XOG)
$64.92
+0.53 (+-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 278.09 | 604.30 | 1,060.74 | 906.64 | 557.90 | 752.95 | 1,016.19 | 1,371.46 | 1,850.94 | 2,498.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -416.44 | -56.22 | 304.75 | -1,417.36 | -1,211.89 | -758.79 | -1,024.07 | -1,382.10 | -1,865.30 | -2,517.43 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -758.79 | -1,024.07 | -1,382.10 | -1,865.30 | -2,517.43 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 588.74 | 6.77 | 234.99 | 32.38 | 205.89 | 414.81 | 559.83 | 755.56 | 1,019.71 | 1,376.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 57.22 | 139.35 | 132.92 | 147.06 | 76.70 | 129.71 | 175.06 | 236.26 | 318.86 | 430.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5.13 | 9.97 | 19.92 | 20.96 | 11.99 | 14.81 | 19.99 | 26.98 | 36.41 | 49.14 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 166.30 | 264.39 | 303.56 | 281.97 | 125.18 | 279.66 | 377.43 | 509.38 | 687.46 | 927.81 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -876.26 | -1,410.20 | -1,055.80 | -877.46 | -253.68 | -1,190.04 | -1,606.09 | -2,167.60 | -2,925.42 | -3,948.17 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.92 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.794 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 138.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.103 |
| Total Debt | 569.11 |
| Total Equity | 8,968.63 |
| Total Capital | 9,537.74 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.97 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.03 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 278.09 | 604.30 | 1,060.74 | 906.64 | 557.90 | 752.95 | 1,016.19 | 1,371.46 | 1,850.94 | 2,498.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -416.44 | -56.22 | 304.75 | -1,417.36 | -1,211.89 | -758.79 | -1,024.07 | -1,382.10 | -1,865.30 | -2,517.43 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -758.79 | -1,024.07 | -1,382.10 | -1,865.30 | -2,517.43 |
| Tax Rate | 6.03% | 58.92% | 39.29% | 6.04% | -0.49% | 21.96% | 21.96% | 21.96% | 21.96% | 21.96% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -592.17 | -799.19 | -1,078.60 | -1,455.69 | -1,964.61 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -82.13 | 6.43 | -14.14 | 70.37 | -53.01 | -45.35 | -61.20 | -82.60 | -111.48 |
| Inventories | - | -4.84 | -9.95 | -1.04 | 8.97 | -2.82 | -5.18 | -6.99 | -9.43 | -12.73 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 98.09 | 39.18 | -21.59 | -156.79 | 154.48 | 97.77 | 131.95 | 178.08 | 240.34 |
| Capital Expenditure | -876.26 | -1,410.20 | -1,055.80 | -877.46 | -253.68 | -1,190.04 | -1,606.09 | -2,167.60 | -2,925.42 | -3,948.17 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -1,683.57 | -2,358.04 | -3,182.44 | -4,295.05 | -5,796.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,502.78 | -1,878.81 | -2,263.38 | -2,726.66 | -3,284.77 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -11,656.40 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -5,912.58 |
| Terminal Value | -58,948.93 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -33,404.44 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -45,060.84 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 363.22 |
| Equity Value | -45,424.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 138.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -328.80 |