Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. (XOG)

$64.92

+0.53 (+-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -328.80 | 64.92 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 278.09604.301,060.74906.64557.90752.951,016.191,371.461,850.942,498.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -416.44-56.22304.75-1,417.36-1,211.89-758.79-1,024.07-1,382.10-1,865.30-2,517.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT ------758.79-1,024.07-1,382.10-1,865.30-2,517.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 588.746.77234.9932.38205.89414.81559.83755.561,019.711,376.21
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 57.22139.35132.92147.0676.70129.71175.06236.26318.86430.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.139.9719.9220.9611.9914.8119.9926.9836.4149.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 166.30264.39303.56281.97125.18279.66377.43509.38687.46927.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -876.26-1,410.20-1,055.80-877.46-253.68-1,190.04-1,606.09-2,167.60-2,925.42-3,948.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.92
Beta 1.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding 138.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.49
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.103
Total Debt 569.11
Total Equity 8,968.63
Total Capital 9,537.74
Debt Weighting 5.97
Equity Weighting 94.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 278.09604.301,060.74906.64557.90752.951,016.191,371.461,850.942,498.05
EBITDA -416.44-56.22304.75-1,417.36-1,211.89-758.79-1,024.07-1,382.10-1,865.30-2,517.43
EBIT ------758.79-1,024.07-1,382.10-1,865.30-2,517.43
Tax Rate 6.03%58.92%39.29%6.04%-0.49%21.96%21.96%21.96%21.96%21.96%
EBIAT ------592.17-799.19-1,078.60-1,455.69-1,964.61
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable --82.136.43-14.1470.37-53.01-45.35-61.20-82.60-111.48
Inventories --4.84-9.95-1.048.97-2.82-5.18-6.99-9.43-12.73
Accounts Payable -98.0939.18-21.59-156.79154.4897.77131.95178.08240.34
Capital Expenditure -876.26-1,410.20-1,055.80-877.46-253.68-1,190.04-1,606.09-2,167.60-2,925.42-3,948.17
UFCF ------1,683.57-2,358.04-3,182.44-4,295.05-5,796.64
WACC
PV UFCF -1,502.78-1,878.81-2,263.38-2,726.66-3,284.77
SUM PV UFCF -11,656.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5,912.58
Terminal Value -58,948.93
Present Value of Terminal Value -33,404.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -45,060.84
Net Debt 363.22
Equity Value -45,424.06
Shares Outstanding 138.15
Equity Value Per Share -328.80