Rotation trades are starting to tell a different story than price targets suggest. As capital drifts back toward cyclical names and recovery plays, several stocks still sit well below where analysts marked fair value last quarter.

Pulling data through FMP's Price Target Summary Bulk API, this week's screen reveals five of those disconnects—cases where sentiment hasn't yet caught up with improving fundamentals. The focus here isn't the gap itself, but what its persistence says about how slowly conviction is moving through the market.

Five Stocks With Large Upside Potential

Birkenstock Holding Ltd (NYSE:BIRK)

Current Price: $39.91 • Average Target (Last Quarter): $77 • Upside Potential: +92.93%

Birkenstock is signaling something few in the footwear consumer space are: sustained, global organic growth at scale. Its most recent quarter posted ~16% constant-currency revenue growth, double-digit expansion across all regions and channels, and margin improvements. That performance suggests the consensus target of ~$77 may not yet fully incorporate the durability of its premium positioning and channel shift.

What matters: If Birkenstock continues to expand its direct-to-consumer business (typically higher margin) while maintaining strong wholesale growth abroad, the margin tailwind should accelerate. Tracking income statement metrics—especially gross margin and SG&A as a percentage of sales—will show whether this brand is interpreting volume into profit.

What to watch: Management commentary around tariffs, supply-chain cost pressures, and store-opening cadence. A surprise revision upward in full-year guidance would validate the gap between market price and consensus target narrowing.

Cigna Corp (NYSE:CI)

Current Price: $244.41 • Average Target (Last Quarter): $363 • Upside Potential: +48.52%

Cigna's recent turn toward stronger earnings is getting less attention than it deserves. In Q1 2025 the company reported a ~$1.3 billion profit versus a loss a year ago, driven by strong performance in its Evernorth segment. Despite this, the market price still lags the ~$363 analyst target, which indicates expectations may still undervalue the sustainability of this inflection.

What matters: The signal here is less about raw growth and more about margin expansion and structural improvement in risk management. Following the income statement for margins (medical cost ratio, pharmacy margin) and the analyst target revisions will tell whether the market is catching up.

What to watch: Any commentary on regulatory or pricing headwinds in the broader managed-care industry. If Cigna can transparently improve its core health services business while reducing volatility, the upside implied by that target becomes more realistic.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG)

Current Price: $31.69 • Average Target (Last Quarter): $46.22 • Upside Potential: +45.85%

Chipotle's discount to its target is rooted in weaker same-store sales trends despite expansion efforts. In Q2 2025, revenue increased ~3 % to $3.1 billion—but adjusted EPS fell ~2.9% and same-store transactions weakened. That performance suggests the consensus target may assume execution improvements that are still in doubt.

What matters: The signal here is whether new restaurant openings and digital channel growth offset softness in core locations and customer transaction trends. Tracking income-statement data (restaurant-level margins, digital penetration) along with earnings-calendar guidance changes will indicate whether the gap can close.

What to watch: Menu innovation, digital growth, and geographic expansion. If Chipotle reports an acceleration in comp-store trends or a meaningful increase in ticket size or digital mix, it may validate the higher target.

Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA)

Current Price: $306.54 • Average Target (Last Quarter): $439.29 • Upside Potential: +43.31%

Carvana's discount to its target reflects caution about its growth trajectory rather than a lack of performance. The company recently set records: Q2 2025 saw ~4.84 billion USD in revenue (+42% YoY) and ~143,280 units sold (+41% YoY). That momentum suggests the market may not have fully baked in the scaling benefits yet.

What matters: The compelling signal is expansion of unit volume and improvement in profitability per unit—if Carvana can maintain or expand gross profit per unit while growing volumes, the multiple can expand. Tracking the cash flow statement (inventory turns, working-capital dynamics) and earnings calendar (guidance updates) will clarify execution.

What to watch: Credit trends and consumer-financing environment—used-car markets are cyclical and exposed to macro headwinds. If Carvana navigates those risks and expands share, the implied target gap shrinks.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)

Current Price: $262.61 • Average Target (Last Quarter): $349.84 • Upside Potential: +33.22%

Oracle is trading below its fair value estimate despite signs of accelerating cloud momentum. In its most recent quarter it reported ~14.9 billion USD in revenue (+12% YoY) and cloud revenue up +28% in USD. The market appears to be cautious about execution risks tied to capex and transition from legacy licensing.

What matters: The key signal is backlog growth and contract size—the “remaining performance obligations” are expanding rapidly, which points to future revenue visibility. Monitoring the operating metrics (cloud growth rate, remaining obligations) and analyst target updates will help assess if the target gap is justified.

What to watch: Large-scale deal flows, especially in AI infrastructure and multi-year contracts. If Oracle begins to report multi-year commitments with high-margin profiles, the market will likely reassess valuation upwards.

Reading the Signal Behind the Gap

The pattern across these five names isn't just about valuation—it's about conviction speed. Each gap tells a slightly different story about how sentiment lags fundamentals. Birkenstock and Cigna are both execution stories the market hasn't fully rewarded yet: revenue quality and operating consistency are improving faster than coverage models adjust. In contrast, Carvana, Oracle, and Chipotle are about validation—the fundamentals are visible, but investors want another quarter or two of confirmation before lifting multiples. Together they capture a broader dynamic of this market: capital is rotating toward growth again, but confidence remains tactical rather than structural.

That's what makes cross-referencing datasets powerful. When consensus targets from FMP's Price Target Summary Bulk API are lined up against trends in operating cash flow or margin expansion from the Income Statement Bulk API, the difference between “cheap for a reason” and “cheap from inertia” becomes obvious. The same comparison, extended through the Balance Sheet Statement API, highlights whether leverage or capital intensity could block upside even when earnings accelerate.

Adding temporal context refines it further. Pulling event timing from the Earnings Calendar API or monitoring tone shifts via the Search Stock News API clarifies whether the narrative is starting to close the gap or staying anchored to old assumptions. When those signals—fundamental, sentiment, and timing—start to align, the gap becomes more than an anomaly; it becomes an early read on where conviction is quietly building before the tape catches up.

The full ecosystem of these datasets can be explored directly through the FMP homepage, where these linked endpoints form a single analytical loop rather than separate data pulls.

Building a Target-Gap Screen With FMP API

Instead of pulling these figures one by one, the full screen can be automated through a short sequence of FMP API calls. The structure below reflects how most research desks would operationalize the process for repeat use across coverage lists.

Step 1: Pull Analyst Price Targets

Begin with the Price Target Summary Bulk API, which aggregates analyst target data for multiple tickers in one request.

Endpoint:
https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/price-target-summary-bulk?apikey=YOUR_API_KEY

Sample Response:

[

{

"symbol": "AAPL",

"lastQuarterCount": "12",

"lastQuarterAvgPriceTarget": "228.15",

"lastYearAvgPriceTarget": "205.34"

}

]

The field to focus on is lastQuarterAvgPriceTarget. It represents the latest aggregated consensus and serves as your fair-value reference for each symbol.

Step 2: Retrieve Current Pricing

Next, bring in live market context by querying the Company Profile Data API for every ticker:
https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/profile/AAPL?apikey=YOUR_API_KEY

Step 3: Calculate Upside Potential

Once both datasets are in hand, compute the spread with:

Upside % = (Price Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100

Normalizing the gap as a percentage keeps results comparable across market caps and price levels, making it easy to rank names by relative opportunity.

Step 4: Screen for High-Opportunity Stocks

Filter the output for names showing material upside—20% or more is a reasonable first cut—but always weigh that against analyst depth to avoid distortions from thin coverage. The most reliable signals come when valuation gaps align with consistent revisions across multiple contributors.

As outlined in FMP's guidance on monitoring target-price changes, tracking how those targets evolve over time helps distinguish between one-off optimism and a sustained shift in fair-value expectations.

Turning a Desk Signal into Firmwide Practice

Running the target-gap screen in isolation can reveal strong ideas, but the real value appears once the same logic becomes part of the firm's shared research layer. When that workflow feeds a common dashboard, those valuation gaps shift from being ad-hoc discoveries to a structured signal that portfolio managers, risk teams, and analysts can all reference in real time. The goal isn't to replace judgment—it's to ensure everyone interprets the data from the same foundation.

To make that possible, inputs like coverage thresholds, update cadence, and treatment of stale estimates need to be codified. That step turns an analyst's one-off model into a governed process. Without that structure, version drift creeps in, spreadsheets diverge, and the discussion moves away from insight toward reconciliation. Once a desk proves that a signal adds value, formalizing it is what keeps it alive beyond the person who built it.

At scale, the research infrastructure has to deliver consistency and traceability—one source of truth that applies the same logic across desks. The FMP Enterprise plan is built for that use case, giving teams synchronized data access and full transparency around updates. With that in place, changes in analyst consensus stop being noise on a headline feed and start functioning as a measurable, auditable indicator within decision workflows.

Watching Sentiment Shift in Real Time

Tracked continuously through FMP's Price Target Summary Bulk API, price-to-target differentials evolve from static valuation notes into dynamic sentiment indicators. The real insight lies in catching the quiet inflection—when consensus and conviction start to realign before markets fully notice.

If you enjoyed this analysis, you'll also want to read: Tracking Dividend Hikes as Behavioral Signals via FMP API (Week of Oct 20-24)