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Biggest Analyst Target Gaps — and How to Track Them with the FMP API (Week of Sept 29–Oct 3)

Wall Street analysts frequently release price targets, which represent their projections for where a stock is likely to trade over the next year.

These targets synthesize valuation models, sector outlooks, and company fundamentals, forming a snapshot of the market's forward-looking expectations.

The difference between a stock's current market price and its average analyst target is a widely monitored metric.

A large gap below the consensus target often suggests potential upside, while a gap above can indicate overvaluation or near-term downside risk.

For the week of September 29 to October 3, five companies show some of the largest price-target discrepancies.

This section highlights those names — and demonstrates how to systematically monitor such valuation gaps using the FMP Price Target Summary Bulk API.

5 Companies with the Widest Price Target Gaps

Tyler Technologies (NYSE: TYL)

  • Current Price: $502.74

  • Average Target (Last Quarter): $585.00

  • Upside Potential: +16.3 %

Tyler Technologies, a leader in cloud-based public-sector software, continues to benefit from steady municipal IT modernization.
The company's moderate +16 % upside reflects consistent subscription revenue growth and expanding margins from its SaaS transition — a sign that analysts still see room for valuation multiple expansion.

SLM Corporation (NASDAQ: SLM)

  • Current Price: $27.55

  • Average Target (Last Quarter): $40.00

  • Upside Potential: +45.3 %

The student-loan servicer and financial-aid platform has been regaining investor attention after several capital-return initiatives.
Analysts point to strong net-interest margins and a disciplined buyback program as catalysts for potential re-rating toward the $40 consensus price target.

Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC)

  • Current Price: $85.58

  • Average Target (Last Quarter): $117.33

  • Upside Potential: +37.1 %

Elastic, known for its Elasticsearch and observability platform, shows a wide valuation gap as markets digest slowing cloud spend.
Analysts continue to view Elastic as a long-term AI and data-infrastructure play, with multiple models suggesting 30-40 % upside once demand for real-time analytics accelerates.

HealthEquity Inc. (NASDAQ: HQY)

  • Current Price: $88.59

  • Average Target (Last Quarter): $121.50

  • Upside Potential: +37.1 %

HealthEquity manages health-savings accounts and benefits platforms for employers across the U.S.
Following strong enrollment growth and record custodial cash balances, analysts see material valuation headroom — particularly as rising interest income enhances profitability through fiscal 2026.

Matador Resources Co. (NYSE: MTDR)

  • Current Price: $45.02

  • Average Target (Last Quarter): $64.67

  • Upside Potential: +43.6 %

Matador's upstream oil and gas operations in the Delaware Basin have drawn bullish target revisions thanks to steady production efficiency and disciplined capex.
The consensus +44 % gap highlights confidence in free-cash-flow strength.

Interpreting Target Gaps: Beyond the Numbers

A big spread to consensus isn't automatically an opportunity — it's an invitation to investigate.
Here's how to evaluate whether a gap is credible or fragile:

  1. Check coverage depth. A 30 % gap based on one or two analysts is flimsy; the same gap with a double-digit lastQuarterCount (from the Price Target Summary Bulk API) carries weight.

  2. Review recency. Compare lastQuarterAvgPriceTarget to lastYearAvgPriceTarget. If the latest average moved materially, you're seeing an updated, active view — not a stale target.

  3. Weigh the sources. Use Stock Grade Latest News to see which firms are setting or revising targets. Clusters led by top-tier banks and echoed by peers within 72 hours tend to move markets more than boutique notes.

  4. Tag the catalyst. Join targets to the Earnings Calendar API or the Search Stock News API to label whether the gap is earnings-, guidance-, or deal-driven. Context turns raw numbers into insight.

For a hands-on walkthrough of how to visualize these dynamics, see Building Single-Stock Estimate & Price Target Heatmaps Without Heavy Code — it shows how to layer analyst estimates and targets for fast, no-code comparisons.

Practical Application: Tracking Price Target Gaps with the FMP API

Rather than scanning analyst reports manually, you can automate this process with two key APIs from FMP.

Step 1: Pull Analyst Price Targets

Use the Price Target Summary Bulk API to get consensus targets for thousands of stocks.

Endpoint:

https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/price-target-summary-bulk?apikey=YOUR_API_KEY

Sample Response:

[

{

"symbol": "A",

"lastQuarterCount": "1",

"lastQuarterAvgPriceTarget": "116",

"lastYearCount": "6",

"lastYearAvgPriceTarget": "142.17",

"allTimeAvgPriceTarget": "146.61"

}

]

Focus on the lastQuarterAvgPriceTarget, which reflects the most recent consensus view.

Step 2: Get Current Stock Prices

Next, query the Company Profile Data API to retrieve each stock's latest price.

Endpoint:

https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/profile/AAPL?apikey=YOUR_API_KEY

Step 3: Calculate Upside Potential

Apply the formula:

Upside % = (Price Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100

Example: If a stock's target is $100 and it trades at $70, upside potential = +42.9%.

Step 4: Screen for High-Opportunity Stocks

Loop through results, compute upside, and filter for thresholds (e.g., Upside ≥ 30 %).
You'll quickly surface names like Elastic or Matador Resources — both trading well below consensus estimates.

Once you're automating target-gap screens this way, you can layer in other FMP datasets — fundamentals, earnings events, or sentiment — to turn a single analyst-gap check into a live, multi-signal watchlist. See the full suite of tools powering this workflow on the Financial Modeling Prep homepage.

Scaling Price Target Monitoring Across Teams

Running this on a single desktop is powerful; embedding it into firm dashboards is transformative.
Centralized feeds from Price Target Summary Bulk API provide a synchronized, auto-updating view of targets, coverage depth, and recency.

For enterprise users, the FMP Enterprise plan adds governance and efficiency:

  • Research leads can define rules (e.g., show only tickers with ≥ 5 recent targets or ≥ 2 top-tier firms).

  • Risk teams can archive target changes with timestamps for committee review.

  • Portfolio managers can filter by book, sector, or catalyst tag to prioritize trades immediately after earnings or guidance events.

What starts as an analyst's script becomes a firm-wide, data-driven signal layer that shortens decision cycles and ensures consistency across coverage.

Putting Price Target Signals to Work

Price-target gaps offer a quick, actionable lens into how far market prices diverge from analyst expectations.
This week's examples — Tyler Technologies, SLM Corp, Elastic N.V., HealthEquity, and Matador Resources — illustrate how to identify stocks trading meaningfully below consensus.

By pairing FMP's Price Target Summary Bulk API with live pricing from the Company Profile Data API, analysts can turn what used to be a tedious, manual process into a repeatable, automated workflow that highlights mispriced opportunities in real time.