Mizuho Cuts Tesla Price Target to $375: Headwinds, Offsets & What Investors Should Know

Mizuho Securities lowered its Tesla price target to $375 (from $390), citing global sales headwinds and a softer U.S. BEV growth outlook. Despite trimming revenue and delivery estimates through 2027, the firm kept its Outperform rating—believing long‑term tailwinds around robotaxis and international demand remain intact.

Global Sales and BEV Growth Forecasts

• 2025 revenue cut: $91 billion (vs. prior $91.7 billion and consensus $95.9 billion)

• 2026 revenue cut: $118 billion (from $119 billion)

• Deliveries: 1.60 million in 2025; 1.96 million in 2026

• BEV production growth: Raised to 15% in 2025 (vs. prior 6%), driven by strong Europe and China demand

U.S. Incentive Phaseout Risk

• IRA credits end Q3 2025: Dealers working through pre‑tariff inventory

• Affordability challenge: Loss of the $7,500 federal EV credit may dampen U.S. deliveries

Europe & China Demand Offsets

• EU BEV registrations: +25% YTD through May

• China EV sales: Supported by ~$42 billion in subsidies

• Robotaxi tailwind: First autonomous deliveries in Texas underpin long‑term optimism

Valuation and Price‑Target Context

Mizuho's $375 target implies an 11.2× multiple on 2026 sales, slightly above Tesla's five‑year average. To see how this stacks up against the Street's view, check the same via the Price Target Summary API: Price Target Summary API

Compare Tesla's current multiples by pulling forward sales ratios through the Ratios TTM API: Ratios TTM API

Conclusion
The revised Tesla price target reflects near‑term U.S. BEV headwinds and incentive rollbacks, offset by robust Europe and China demand and emerging robotaxi growth. Evaluating consensus price targets and sales multiples through the two APIs above can help investors gauge whether the $375 target embeds appropriate upside.

Review Tesla's consensus price targets with the Price Target Summary API and monitor forward sales multiples via the Ratios TTM API to inform your investment decisions.