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Insights/Market Insights/Market Fundamentals/Weekly Signals Desk | Five Dividend Increases Flagged by the FMP API (Sept 21-25)

Weekly Signals Desk | Five Dividend Increases Flagged by the FMP API (Sept 21-25)

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·13 min read
Market Insights

McDonald's crossed a line this month that fewer than 60 U.S. public companies have reached: a 50th straight year of dividend increases. The raise itself was measured, under 4%, and it arrived six days before an investor day built around franchisee support and restaurant-level efficiency. That combination, a symbolic milestone paired with a deliberately modest step, frames the rest of this edition well, because the other four names raised by more while each operating under a very different set of constraints.

This edition covers the past two weeks, capturing declarations from T-Mobile, Philip Morris International, McDonald's, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase. It is built on the Dividends Calendar API, and the sections below discuss what each declaration says about cash priorities before walking through how the endpoint can be used to isolate genuine increases from routine recurring payments.

Key Takeaways

  • The largest percentage raise in the group, T-Mobile's 14.7%, sits inside a shareholder return program still weighted toward repurchases, so the dividend line understates how much cash the company is sending back.
  • Microsoft's 7.7% increase lands below its recent five-year pace while capital spending on AI infrastructure has roughly doubled, which puts the focus on cash conversion rather than yield.
  • McDonald's and Philip Morris both raised from long, uninterrupted records, but the payout is being funded by different engines: a franchise rent model on one side and a product mix shift toward smoke-free categories on the other.
  • JPMorgan's 10% raise was telegraphed after the stress-test cycle in June, making it a readout on regulatory capital headroom more than on a single quarter's earnings.

Five Payout Raises That Stood Out Over the Past Two Weeks

T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS)

T-Mobile declared a quarterly dividend of $1.17 per share, or $4.68 annualized, a 14.7% increase from the prior $1.02. The dividend is payable on December 10, 2026, to stockholders of record on November 25, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of November 24, 2026. The annual yield is 2.8%.

The size of the step is the headline, but the context changes how it reads. T-Mobile's dividend is still a relatively young program, and it has always been the smaller partner in a broader shareholder return authorization that runs through the end of 2026. Since the third quarter of 2022, the large majority of the cash returned to shareholders has gone through buybacks rather than dividends. A double-digit raise in that setting looks less like a pivot toward income and more like a gradual rebalancing, where management moves a larger slice of recurring free cash flow into a commitment that is harder to reverse than a repurchase.

That is the part worth watching. The company raised its free cash flow guidance in its second-quarter report while absorbing integration costs from the UScellular transaction, and postpaid net additions slowed year over year even as service revenue grew. FMP's Cash Flow Statement API separates dividends paid from common stock repurchased, which makes it possible to track whether the mix between the two keeps shifting as the current authorization approaches its year-end expiry, and whether free cash flow growth continues to cover both.

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM)

Philip Morris declared a quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share, or $6.40 annualized, an 8.8% increase from the prior $1.47. The dividend will be payable on October 26, 2026, to stockholders of record on October 2, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of October 1, 2026. The annual yield is 3.4%.

An 8.8% raise from a company already yielding above 3% is a meaningful commitment, and it extends a record of annual increases that stretches back to the 2008 spin from Altria. The more interesting question is where the incremental cash is coming from. Smoke-free products, led by heated tobacco and oral nicotine pouches, made up roughly 42% of revenue in the second quarter. That share has been climbing for several years, and it changes the character of the dividend: the payout is increasingly backed by a category with its own growth and margin dynamics rather than by pricing power in a shrinking combustible base.

FMP's Revenue Product Segmentation API is the natural place to test that thesis, since it shows how the revenue split between combustible and smoke-free lines has moved over time. Pairing that split with gross margin from the Income Statement API would indicate whether the faster-growing segment is also carrying its weight on profitability, which is the condition that makes a raise of this size sustainable across currency swings and excise changes.

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)

McDonald's declared a quarterly dividend of $1.93 per share, or $7.72 annualized, a 3.8% increase from the prior $1.86. The dividend will be payable on December 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on December 1, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of November 30, 2026. The annual yield is 3.1%.

With this increase, McDonald's marks its 50th consecutive year of dividend increases and joins the Dividend Kings, a group of fewer than 60 U.S. public companies that have raised their annual payout for at least half a century. The company attributes that record to the durability of its business model and the resiliency of its cash flow, and the structure supports the claim: roughly 95% of its more than 46,000 restaurants are franchised, which means a large share of revenue arrives as rent and royalties rather than as restaurant-level sales exposed to food and labor inflation.

The modest size of the raise makes more sense against the investor day that followed on September 23. Management laid out 2030 targets centered on operating margin, free cash flow conversion and unit growth, alongside a multi-year franchisee support commitment delivered through rent relief and capital. That is cash directed toward the system before it reaches shareholders. FMP's Dividends Company API provides the full per-share history needed to see how the pace of increases has evolved across five decades, and comparing it with free cash flow from the Cash Flow Statement API would show whether the new support program narrows the gap between cash generated and cash distributed.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Microsoft declared a quarterly dividend of $0.98 per share, or $3.92 annualized, a 7.7% increase from the prior $0.91. The dividend will be payable on December 10, 2026, to stockholders of record on November 19, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of November 18, 2026. The annual yield is 0.8%.

At under 1%, the yield plays almost no role in how Microsoft is owned, so the signal sits in the growth rate. This increase is below the roughly 10% average of the past five years, and it comes as capital expenditure on data centers and AI infrastructure has close to doubled in a single fiscal year. Operating cash flow remains very large, but more of it is being absorbed before it reaches free cash flow. A board that trims the pace of dividend growth while that build-out continues is signaling a preference for protecting reinvestment capacity, without abandoning a record of increases that now spans more than two decades.

The data point to monitor is the relationship between capital spending and operating cash flow over the next several quarters. FMP's Cash Flow Statement API reports both lines alongside dividends paid and share repurchases, which allows the ratio of capex to operating cash flow to be tracked quarter by quarter. If that ratio keeps rising, the data suggests the dividend growth rate may remain the more flexible lever in Microsoft's capital allocation.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM)

JPMorgan declared a quarterly dividend of $1.65 per share, or $6.60 annualized, a 10% increase from the prior $1.50. The dividend will be payable on October 31, 2026, to stockholders of record on October 6, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of October 5, 2026. The annual yield is 1.9%.

This declaration had been flagged in advance. In June, after the Federal Reserve's supervisory stress-test cycle, JPMorgan said its stress capital buffer would remain at 2.5% and announced both the planned dividend increase and a new $50 billion share repurchase authorization. The September declaration formalizes that plan. For a bank of this size, the dividend is less a statement about quarterly profit than about how much capital sits above regulatory minimums after the most severe hypothetical scenario is applied.

That makes the relevant analysis balance-sheet driven. FMP's Balance Sheet Statement API tracks equity, total assets and debt on a reported basis, and its Income Statement API shows net interest income and provisions for credit losses, the two lines most likely to shift the capital cushion in either direction. The pairing of a double-digit dividend raise with a large buyback indicates management sees excess capital today; whether that stays true depends on credit costs and the revised stress-test methodology the Fed has indicated for 2027.

What the Pattern Says About Payout Intent

Five raises, five different funding stories. T-Mobile is shifting a larger share of an established return program into dividends. Philip Morris is leaning on a product transition to support a high-yield payout. McDonald's is directing cash toward its franchise system first and paying shareholders from what remains of a very steady stream. Microsoft is holding the line on growth while infrastructure spending climbs, and JPMorgan is converting regulatory headroom into distributions. The common thread is not the size of the raise; it is that each board calibrated the increase to its largest competing use of cash.

That observation matters for anyone building a dividend screen. Percentage change is the easiest variable to rank, but it is also the one most likely to mislead. T-Mobile's 14.7% and McDonald's 3.8% cannot be compared on growth alone when one sits inside a buyback-led program and the other follows a multi-billion-dollar franchisee commitment. The declaration tells you that a decision was made; the surrounding financials tell you what it cost.

This is where the declaration feed becomes the first layer rather than the whole model. Within the FMP data set, a raise flagged by the Dividends Calendar API can be tested against free cash flow and repurchase activity in the Cash Flow Statement API, while the Financial Ratios TTM API puts payout ratio and leverage on a comparable footing across a telecom, a tobacco company, a restaurant franchisor, a software platform and a bank. For companies where the business mix is changing, the Revenue Product Segmentation API shows whether the growing part of the business is the one funding the payout.

Expectations complete the picture. The Financial Estimates API can show whether forecast earnings and revenue are rising in line with the higher distribution, and the Dividends Company API adds the historical cadence of increases so a slower raise can be read against a company's own track record. When these datasets point the same way, the declaration carries more analytical weight. When they diverge, as they partially do for Microsoft this cycle, the dividend becomes a reason to look closer rather than a conclusion.

From Declaration to Insight: Building a Repeatable Dividend Screen via FMP API

If dividend adjustments are going to function as usable signals, the process has to begin at the point where the decision actually occurs: the declaration itself. That means sourcing the data directly from the FMP Dividends Calendar API, which captures dividend announcements at the moment companies publish them, before those entries are absorbed into broader aggregated datasets.

Before running any queries, confirm that your API key is active. Once authenticated, the Dividends Calendar endpoint effectively becomes the intake layer for the entire workflow. It returns a structured dataset containing the ticker symbol, declared dividend amount, key payout dates (declaration, record, payment, and ex-dividend), yield, and payment frequency. That initial pull forms the starting universe from which dividend changes can be identified and analyzed.

Endpoint:

https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/dividends-calendar?apikey=YOUR_API_KEY

Sample Response:

[

{

"symbol": "1D0.SI",

"date": "2025-02-04",

"recordDate": "",

"paymentDate": "",

"declarationDate": "",

"adjDividend": 0.01,

"dividend": 0.01,

"yield": 6.25,

"frequency": "Semi-Annual"

}

]

Step 1: Capture Recent Declarations

Start by querying the Dividends Calendar over a short, controlled time frame—typically the most recent 10 to 14 days. This window is long enough to capture new declarations while limiting contamination from older entries that sometimes reappear due to reporting delays. The output from this step forms the working universe for the rest of the analysis.

Step 2: Stack It Against the Prior Dividend

Next, for every ticker surfaced in the initial pull, retrieve the previous dividend using the historical dividend endpoint. This historical anchor is critical. Without it, unchanged recurring payments and true increases are indistinguishable. The comparison introduces context and allows the workflow to focus on intent rather than repetition.

Step 3: Filter for Material Moves

With both the new and prior dividend values in hand, calculate the percentage change using

(New Dividend − Old Dividend) ÷ Old Dividend × 100.

Apply your screening criteria to narrow the list. A common approach is to flag increases of 5% or more paired with an annual yield of at least 2%, which helps remove token raises while preserving economically relevant moves. Thresholds can be tuned depending on whether the focus is income generation, payout discipline, or signal detection.

Example Workflow: Detecting 5%+ Dividend Hikes

  1. Pull a fresh 14-day window from the Dividends Calendar API.
  2. For each ticker, fetch its prior payout via the historical dividend endpoint.
  3. Compute the percentage change using the formula above.
  4. Keep only companies posting 5%+ increases and yielding 2% or more.

Expanding Your Dividend Tracking Setup

Most dividend screens start out as simple monitoring systems. The initial goal is usually straightforward: capture new declarations quickly enough to feed a watchlist, weekly report, or alert workflow before the information gets absorbed into broader market data. Using the Financial Modeling Prep Free plan, that process stays lean and reactive, centered on pulling fresh entries from the Dividends Calendar as they are published.

The analysis becomes more useful once historical comparison enters the workflow. Access to roughly one year of dividend history through the Starter plan makes it possible to place each declaration against its prior payout rather than treating every entry as a standalone event. That shift matters because recurring dividends and genuine increases often look identical in raw calendar data. Once the historical layer is added, patterns begin to emerge around consistency, timing, and how management teams behave across different operating environments.

A longer historical window changes the screen again. With up to five years of dividend history available through the Premium, payout decisions can be evaluated across multiple business cycles instead of isolated reporting periods. At that depth, dividend changes stop functioning as simple event flags and start becoming part of a broader operating history — one that can be compared against earnings pressure, margin expansion, sector slowdowns, or shifts in capital allocation strategy over time.

When a Desk Tool Turns Into Firmwide Infrastructure

Most market-monitoring workflows do not begin as institutional systems. They start as tightly scoped analyst processes — a dividend screen running weekly, a historical comparison model maintained on a single desk, or a signal tracker built to support a specific coverage universe. The transition happens when those outputs start influencing conversations outside their original context. Once portfolio managers, strategy teams, and risk committees begin referencing the same screen, consistency becomes more important than the screen itself.

At that point, the analyst who built the workflow often becomes something else entirely: the internal advocate for standardization. The challenge shifts away from finding signals and toward ensuring every team is interpreting the same dataset under the same assumptions. That means aligning declaration feeds, refresh schedules, historical comparison windows, and filtering logic across desks. Without that coordination layer, firms gradually accumulate fragmented versions of the same model — similar screens producing slightly different conclusions because the underlying methodology drifted over time.

Centralized workflows reduce that friction. When dividend declaration data, historical payout comparisons, cash flow metrics, and analyst estimate revisions feed into a shared dashboard environment, research teams can spend less time reconciling discrepancies and more time debating interpretation. A portfolio manager reviewing a dividend signal should be looking at the same benchmark logic as the analyst who generated it and the risk team evaluating its exposure implications. Shared infrastructure turns isolated analysis into an institutional reference point.

As adoption broadens, governance naturally becomes part of the analytical process. Questions around lineage, revision tracking, access controls, and auditability start carrying as much weight as the signal itself. Teams want to know whether historical dividend records were revised, whether screening thresholds changed between quarters, and whether prior outputs can be reproduced under the same assumptions. In institutional environments, repeatability is credibility.

That is usually the stage where successful desk-level workflows migrate onto more formal infrastructure layers, not to change the analytical framework, but to preserve it as usage expands across teams. In practice, that often means consolidating data access and workflow management through systems designed for broader internal distribution, such as the Financial Modeling Prep Enterprise Plan, where the emphasis shifts toward stability, consistency, and operational transparency across the research stack.

Dividend Declarations as a Measure of Where Cash Goes First

Each of these five raises was sized against something else competing for the same cash, and that trade-off is the real content of a dividend decision. Tracked consistently through the FMP Dividends Calendar API, those choices build into a record of how boards rank their priorities as conditions change.

If you found this useful, you might also like: Signals Desk Weekly | Multi-Year CAGR Strength Taking Shape Across Five Names (Sept 14-18)

Disclosure: Signals Desk content is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or trade recommendations. The analysis reflects interpretation of market data and publicly disclosed or third-party information, including data accessed via Financial Modeling Prep APIs, at the time of publication. Signals discussed are probabilistic, can be wrong, and may change as market conditions and consensus data evolve. This content should be considered alongside broader research, individual objectives, and risk assessment.

About the Author

David Kirakosyan
David Kirakosyan

Weekly Signals Desk analysis and API-driven market workflows

David Kirakosyan writes the Weekly Signals Desk for FMP, breaking down market signals while showing readers how to build similar workflows using the FMP API. His work focuses on turning raw API data into practical market analysis and repeatable workflows that developers and analysts can adapt to their own research.

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