Evercore ISI downgraded Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) to In Line from Outperform and set a price target of $233.00, citing a more balanced risk-reward following the stock's strong performance this year.

The firm said it no longer saw as much differentiation in earnings forecasts, with upside limited to about 2.5% compared with more than 4% previously. Analysts noted margin normalization in 2026 and 2027, with lower loss ratios offset by weaker expense ratios, reducing scope for positive estimate revisions.

While Allstate remained inexpensive compared with historical levels, rival Progressive, and the equal-weighted S&P, Evercore said slower earnings growth over the next two years limited rerating potential. The firm also noted the insurer was not under-earning on investment income as it had been in 2018-2019.