Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin (BTC) lost 10.66% this week following the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement.
• BTC price hovers near lower Bollinger Band at $80,411, signaling downside risk.
• Short-term target: Potential 4% drop if BTC remains below $90,200.
• Long-term target: 12.3% drop to $73,000 if bearish momentum continues.

BTC Struggles After Disappointing Reserve Announcement

📉 What Happened?

• The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve failed to provide market support.
• BTC lost 10.66% over the week, now trading near key support levels.
• Investors were expecting a stronger commitment from the U.S. government, but the lack of fresh purchases dampened sentiment.

💡 What's Next for Bitcoin?

• Volatility remains high, with technical indicators signaling further downside.
• Traders closely watching $80,411, a key level that, if broken, could lead to more losses.

Bollinger Bands Indicate Further Downside Risk

📊 Short-Term Outlook (Daily Chart)

• BTC is trapped between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands.
• Lower band at $80,411—BTC must hold above this to avoid a 4% drop.
• Middle band at $90,200—a breakout above this would invalidate bearish momentum.

⚠️ Likelihood of a Short-Term Rally?

• An 8% surge above $90,200 in a few hours is unlikely, making BTC vulnerable to more losses.

📊 Medium-Term Outlook (Weekly Chart)

• The weekly Bollinger Bands show a bearish setup, with the lower band at $73,000.
• If BTC continues trading in this range, it could decline another 12.3% in the coming weeks.

Market Sentiment & Economic Indicators

🛑 Bearish Signals:

• Regulatory uncertainty still weighs on crypto markets.
• U.S. economic weakness adds to market-wide risk aversion.
• BTC dominance declining, signaling capital rotation out of crypto.

📈 Bullish Hope?

• If BTC breaks above $90,200, bullish momentum could return.
• Macroeconomic tailwinds (such as Fed policy shifts) could drive a reversal.

Track BTC Market Trends

• Crypto Currency Free API - Get real-time BTC prices and market trends.
• Technical Intraday API - Bollinger Bands - Monitor BTC's Bollinger Band movements.

Final Thoughts

BTC is at a critical juncture—if it fails to reclaim $90,200, a drop to $73,000 becomes increasingly likely. Traders should watch price action closely and monitor macro and regulatory developments for potential trend shifts.