Bitcoin extended a narrow trading range on Thursday, rising 0.1% to $104,900 at 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), as geopolitical uncertainty over U.S. involvement in the Israel‑Iran conflict and hawkish Federal Reserve remarks kept traders cautious.

Market Overview: Rangebound with Caution

Over the past week, Bitcoin has oscillated between $103,000 and $108,000, reflecting a balance between safe‑haven buying and risk‑off pressures. Continued military skirmishes and speculation of U.S. strikes against Iran have underpinned downward pressure, while lingering hopes for regulatory clarity in crypto markets provided intermittent support.

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Geopolitical Risk: Israel‑Iran Conflict

A Bloomberg report on Thursday indicated U.S. officials are preparing options for potential strikes against Iran, although no decision has been finalized. Any escalation could drive further flows into Bitcoin and gold as alternative stores of value.

Fed's Steady Tone Adds to Headwinds

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and removed explicit guidance on future cuts—trimming its 2026 rate‑cut outlook. This hawkish stance weighed on all risk assets, limiting Bitcoin's upside.

Regulatory Catalyst: GENIUS Act Advances

Former President Trump praised the Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act, which would create a federal framework for stablecoins. Trump urged the House to pass a “clean” version of the bill “lightning fast,” sparking gains in crypto‑native equities like Circle Internet (NYSE: CRCL).

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What to Watch Next

1. Geopolitical Developments: Any official U.S. action on Iran could trigger a fresh Bitcoin rally.

2. Fed Policy Signals: Comments from Fed officials on rate trajectories will be critical for crypto sentiment.

3. Regulatory Progress: Movement on the GENIUS Act in the House could provide a near‑term boost to stablecoins and Bitcoin alike.

Investors should monitor live price feeds, Fed announcements, and regulatory updates to navigate Bitcoin's tight trading range.