Brent crude surged $2 overnight to just below $80 per barrel, as investors priced in elevated supply-disruption risks linked to escalating Iran-Israel hostilities. Goldman Sachs strategists now assign a $12/bbl geopolitical risk premium, modeling several disruption scenarios with prices spiking as high as $110/bbl.

Geopolitical Scenarios Driving Oil Upside

Goldman's team, led by Daan Struyven, outlines key disruption cases:

• 1.75 mbpd Export Cut: If Iran's seaborne exports drop by 1.75 million barrels per day (mbpd), Brent could briefly hit $90/bbl.

• Prolonged Straits Impact: A one-month, 50% Strait of Hormuz shut-in followed by 11 months at 10% restraint would see a peak around $110/bbl, even accounting for reserve releases and bypass routes.

• 2026 Range: Should disruptions persist at moderate levels, Goldman projects prices settling between $70-$80/bbl next year.

Broader Energy Market Implications

Natural gas markets face similar strains:

• European TTF is approaching €74/MWh, the 2022 crisis threshold.

• A sustained large-scale gas transit halt through Hormuz could push TTF above €100/MWh.

Why Major Powers Are Likely to Intervene

Despite the volatility, global actors (U.S., China, Gulf states) have strong incentives to maintain Strait of Hormuz flow—nearly 20% of worldwide oil passes through this chokepoint.

Real-Time Oil Price Tracking

Stay up to date with live Brent crude and WTI futures quotes using the Financial Modeling Prep Commodities Data API. commodities

Investor Takeaways

1. Monitor Geopolitical News: Any flare-up in Middle East tensions can trigger immediate price jumps.

2. Use Dip-Buy Strategies: Tactical entries near $75-$78/bbl may capture upside if scenarios unfold.

3. Diversify Energy Exposure: Consider balancing oil positions with natural gas and related equities to hedge volatility.