Ad Buyers Trim Expectations Amid Economic Uncertainty

UBS forecasts a 5.5% rise in global digital advertising budgets for 2025—down nearly one full percentage point from 2024—reflecting caution over potential tariff impacts and mixed macro signals. While overall growth is decelerating, platform-specific trends vary significantly.

Platform Winners and Losers

Meta (Facebook) Bucking the Trend

• Digital ad budgets up 1.7% year-over-year for Facebook

• Instagram remains a top social commerce destination, despite slowing growth

• Advertisers are poised to shift budgets from TikTok into Meta's ecosystem

Amazon and Google Under Pressure

• Amazon sees ad spend growth easing to 2.8%, as e-commerce headwinds temper demand

• Google faces sharper slowdowns across both Search and YouTube, with YouTube's budgets growing just 4.1% in 2025

Other Notables

• Pinterest (PINS) and Snap forecast slight cuts in ad allocations

• The Trade Desk (TTD) maintains stable CTV budget growth amid cord-cutting trends

Traditional Media Shifts: TV vs. Connected TV

• Nearly 60% of buyers plan to reduce linear TV spending over the next two years

• Sports programming remains an exception, buoyed by live-event demand

• CTV platforms—led by Netflix, YouTube, and Amazon Prime—continue to capture incremental budgets

Why Growth Is Slowing

1. Tariff Uncertainty: Potential levies on tech exports are prompting advertisers to hold back

2. Economic Headwinds: Slowing consumer spending growth is tightening marketing ROIs

3. Platform Saturation: Rising CPMs and ad fatigue are forcing buyers to optimize channel mixes

Tracking Platform Performance

To analyze how these shifts translate into company fundamentals, investors and analysts can leverage:

• Financial Growth API: Monitor year-over-year revenue growth for major ad platforms—Meta, Google, Amazon—and spot inflection points in their top-line momentum. Financial Growth API

• Ratios (TTM) API: Compare profitability and efficiency metrics (e.g., operating margin, ROE) across ad-driven businesses to gauge which platforms can best absorb slower budget growth. Ratios (TTM) API

Strategic Takeaways

• Diversify Ad Mix: Balance high-reach channels (Search, CTV) with niche platforms to control costs.

• Emphasize ROI: Data-driven attribution models will be crucial as budgets tighten.

• Watch Regulatory Risks: Tariff developments and privacy regulations could further reshape ad economics.