EU regulators have expanded their antitrust investigation into Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA), deploying a fresh questionnaire to terminal providers and payments companies. This follows last month's survey of retailers and merchants and marks the European Commission's most intensive scrutiny yet of card‑scheme fees since the probe began in September.

Scope of the New Questionnaire

The Commission's latest round of inquiries asks respondents to detail every fee and service introduced, modified or withdrawn by Visa and Mastercard between 2017 and 2024. Key areas of focus include:

• Mandatory vs. Optional Services: Which scheme or processing fees are unavoidable for acquirers?

• Disclosure Clarity: Are fee schedules communicated transparently, and is sufficient advance notice provided before changes?

• Complaint Resolution: Have payments firms lodged grievances with the networks in the past seven years, and how timely was the response?

Market Reaction and Analyst Shifts

Shares of both companies saw muted moves on the news but remain under pressure after several brokers adjusted their outlooks. According to FMP's Up‑Down Grades by Company API, multiple firms have recently trimmed their ratings on Visa and Mastercard, citing regulatory overhangs. Meanwhile, the consensus 12‑month price target for Visa stands at $260, and for Mastercard at $410, based on data from the Price Target Summary API.

Broader Implications for the Payments Industry

As card networks process roughly two‑thirds of euro‑zone transactions, any finding of anticompetitive conduct could force fee reductions or structural separation of scheme and processing businesses. For terminal providers and fintechs, a successful challenge could lower costs and spur new entrants—but network revenues could face a significant hit.

With a confidential ICC arbitration-like depth of detail gathering, the EU's expanded probe raises the stakes for global card networks. Stakeholders will watch for the Commission's next steps, which could include formal charges or commitments to alter fee practices.