$166 billion valued Moderna may become even bigger

Share prices of Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), the Covid-19 vaccine maker, rose more than 7% on Monday, closing at $411,89. The company, which was the biggest biotech to go public (Dec 2018) is now the top performer in the S&P 500 index in 2021, surging around 267% since the start of the year. The company reported $5.9 billion Covid-19 vaccine sales in the first half of 2021 and has signed $20 billion worth of purchase agreements for its vaccine this year and a projected $8 billion for next year.

While many wonder if the company’s market capitalization, which is now roughly $166 billion will soon cross the $1 trillion mark in case it sustains the current growth levels, some analysts question the rally, viewing biotech as overhyped and becoming detached from its value proposition.

According to the estimates by Bank of America earlier this month, the company’s 200 billion market capitalization (start of August) is only justified in case it manages to sell yearly $1-1.5 billion vaccines from 2022 to 2038.

However, as Covid-19 is becoming endemic, the company’s sales are going to fall, already seen by the projected $8 billion for 2022 vs. $20 billion in 2021. And it’s not realistic to think that the company will be able to sustain its early-stage success for longer periods.