Carvana Slumps 15% Despite Q4 Earnings Beat as Lack of 2025 Guidance Worries Investors

Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) delivered strong fourth-quarter results, surpassing analyst expectations on earnings, revenue, and key operational metrics. However, shares plunged 15% intra-day today as investors were left wanting more clarity on the company's outlook for 2025.

For Q4, Carvana posted earnings of $0.56 per diluted share, nearly doubling Street’s estimate of $0.31. Revenue climbed to $3.55 billion, beating the expected $3.34 billion. The company’s adjusted EBITDA reached $359 million, exceeding the $328.9 million consensus.

Retail unit sales came in at 114,379, surpassing projections of 108,339, while gross profit per vehicle hit $6,671, slightly ahead of expectations. However, retail gross profit per unit on an unadjusted basis was lower than anticipated, coming in at $3,226, which analysts noted missed expectations and slowed from last quarter’s growth trend.

DA Davidson analysts pointed out that while retail gross profit per unit rose 15% year-over-year, it fell short of the 16% estimate and was a notable deceleration from the 30% increase in the previous quarter.

Despite these concerns, Carvana remains bullish on 2025, stating that it expects significant growth in both retail unit sales and core profitability. The company also guided for sequential increases in these figures in the current quarter, though the lack of specific financial projections for the full year left some investors hesitant.

While Carvana continues to demonstrate operational improvements, the absence of a concrete 2025 roadmap has made Wall Street cautious, dampening enthusiasm for an otherwise solid quarter.