Analysts at Berenberg Bank downgraded CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) to hold from buy as they believe the scope for further surprise is limited as energy spreads between the US and the rest of the world should narrow from record levels.

Although the analysts expect the company to do well in 2022, they believe that this is well known and understood at this stage. The company will benefit from rising UAN prices and better utilization of its asset base compared with last year (CF Industries outperformed its peers in 2021 thanks to record energy spreads).

Coal prices in China have already declined from Q3/21 highs while the European natural gas pricing situation remains the wild card, which could trigger the return of c11 mtpa of nitrogen volumes. With consensus assuming more than USD500/t urea pricing for 2022, the analysts struggle to find a further upside to EBITDA estimates.