Deutsche Bank Trims Tesla Price Target Amid Delivery Concerns and Delayed Model Q Rollout

Deutsche Bank lowered its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) from $420 to $345, maintaining a Buy rating but signaling increased caution as the company faces softening demand and a slower-than-expected Model Q launch.

The bank adjusted Tesla’s delivery forecasts downward for the first quarter, full year, and 2026. Q1 deliveries are now estimated between 340,000 and 350,000 units, reflecting weaker demand trends and indicating potential margin pressure for Tesla’s automotive segment.

For 2025, the analysts project a 5% year-over-year decline in deliveries to approximately 1.7 million vehicles, assuming a staggered introduction of the Model Q, Tesla’s upcoming lower-cost version of the Model Y. The revised rollout timeline now assumes initial U.S. availability, followed by Europe and then China.

The analysts attributed recent stock pressure to disappointing auto volumes, a broader pullback in high-growth tech names, and uncertainty around regulatory and political developments.

Deutsche Bank also cautioned that despite the excitement around Tesla’s future-facing technologies like robotaxis and humanoid robots, progress in those areas is unlikely to follow a smooth or predictable trajectory.

While the long-term outlook remains intact, Tesla’s near-term performance will likely hinge on how effectively it manages demand challenges, executes the Model Q launch, and navigates a more volatile macro and policy environment.