KeyBanc Slashes Monolithic Power Systems Price Target Amid Market Share Concerns

KeyBanc analysts lowered their price target for Monolithic Power Systems (NASDAQ:MPWR) from $1,075 to $700 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment reflects concerns over the company's near-term market share losses in connection with Nvidia's Blackwell GPU ramp.

Monolithic Power Systems is expected to lose a significant portion of its market share due to ongoing power management integrated circuit (PMIC) overheating issues tied to Nvidia's previous Hopper GPU platform. Infineon is projected to secure the majority share (60-70%) in the Blackwell ramp, with Renesas also capturing a secondary share. While Monolithic Power Systems is working to requalify its components, the earliest potential reentry point appears to be the Blackwell Ultra (GB300/B300) expected in the second half of 2025.

Despite the share loss, the analysts believe the stock’s recent decline has already priced in much of the downside risk. The Overweight rating reflects optimism about Monolithic Power Systems’ long-term prospects, driven by expected growth in generative AI and data center markets. However, the revised price target accounts for near-term challenges and lowered estimates stemming from the ongoing competition in the GPU market.