UBS analysts upgraded Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) to Neutral from Sell, setting a price target of $9 on the stock. The analysts noted that the current stock price now reflects a more balanced near-term risk/reward scenario, with an upside/downside case skew of 1.6:1.

The analysts observe that the market has adjusted to incorporate some of the medium-term concerns, suggesting that Rivian’s stock price is currently aligned with an anticipated $4.5 billion in sales for 2025, close to UBS’s estimate of approximately $5.1 billion, albeit below the consensus estimate of $7.5 billion.

The analysts highlighted that with short interest rising to about 18.7% of the float, there is an elevated risk of volatility, especially if a positive catalyst such as encouraging updates on R2 orders materializes. Such updates could validate Rivian's potential, though significant growth might not be seen until 2026/27. Potential near-term upward movements could stem from positive developments on R2 orders, while downside risks could involve price reductions for the R1 model or softer demand for it. The analysts also cautioned about potential volatility due to broader concerns about rising interest rates.