Stifel Cuts CAVA Price Target on Near-Term Headwinds

Stifel lowered its price target on CAVA Group (NYSE:CAVA) to $125 from $175 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing near-term sales softness but reaffirming confidence in the brand’s long-term growth trajectory.

The firm revised its second-quarter same-restaurant sales (SRS) estimate to 5.5%, down from the Street’s 6.9% forecast, due to tough comparisons following last year's successful launch of grilled steak. However, the full-year SRS projection remains around 7%, in line with the company’s guidance for a high-30% three-year stack.

Despite trimming short-term expectations, Stifel remains constructive on CAVA’s outlook. Analysts see accelerating average unit volume (AUV) growth as the brand continues to expand and benefit from rising consumer awareness. This mirrors trends seen in other successful fast-casual concepts where newer locations outperform earlier cohorts.

With AUV expansion, margin improvement, and unit growth forming the core of CAVA’s valuation story, Stifel expects the company to deliver upside over time. They suggest that sentiment-driven dips may offer attractive entry points for long-term investors.