Susquehanna Lowers Micron Target to $175, Citing Mid-Cycle Correction

Susquehanna analysts lowered their price target for Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) to $175 from $185 while maintaining a Positive rating on the stock. The analysts updated estimates following Micron's recent comments indicating flattish DRAM/NAND bit shipments for the November quarter, while also factoring in revised pricing assumptions.

Despite the "mid-cycle" correction within a broader up-cycle, the analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. They noted that the memory industry is experiencing structural changes, particularly in DRAM, which is benefiting from successive generations of HBM products, preventing the usual "commoditization" of memory. Additionally, NAND is experiencing limited bit supply growth, which supports a more favorable market environment.

The analysts believe this cycle could last up to 12 quarters—longer than the typical 4-8 quarters seen historically—thanks to new HBM products and restricted wafer capacity. Despite potential downside risks related to a flattening cost curve, the analysts expect Micron’s product mix and rational investment strategies to mitigate these risks. Susquehanna’s updated EPS forecasts for 2025 stand at $9.49 and $11.70, respectively, compared to the consensus of $9.66 and $11.71.