MoffettNathanson is maintaining its Sell rating on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with a $184 price target, citing growing concerns that the company’s profit margins could face mounting pressure from a mix of intensifying promotions and looming tariffs.

While Apple has leaned on higher price points to drive revenue growth in recent years, analysts warn that the gains from increased average selling prices (ASPs) are being eroded by a surge in promotional offers—especially in the first quarter, which saw record levels of device subsidies across carriers.

These heavy discounts, often amortized over installment plans, are reducing the net benefit of higher upfront pricing and could continue to dilute average revenue per user (ARPU), especially if they become the norm.

The bigger looming issue, however, is tariff risk. With Apple assembling the bulk of its devices in China, new trade penalties could raise iPhone production costs by as much as 54%. The report highlights uncertainty over how the cost burden will be shared among Apple, its suppliers, and telecom partners, but warns that consumers and carriers are likely to see higher prices ahead.

With profit headwinds stacking up and no clear roadmap for offsetting the added costs, the firm believes the upside for Apple stock is limited in the near term.