UBS Downgrades Vale Amid Concerns Over Iron Ore Outlook

UBS analysts lowered their rating on Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) from Buy to Neutral and reduced the stock’s price target from $14.00 to $11.50. Despite Vale’s notable advancements this year in areas like operational improvements, resolving the Samarco litigation in Brazil, and appointing a new CEO, UBS sees both challenges and uncertainties in the company’s future.

Vale achieved significant milestones in 2024, with positive developments expected to continue in areas such as government relations, a new rail concession agreement, and updates to cave regulation. However, UBS expressed concerns about the medium-term fundamentals of the iron ore market, noting potential pressure on iron ore prices. UBS pointed to risks in global markets for Chinese steel exports, which could face limitations without adequate stimulus to support demand.

Looking ahead, UBS expects Vale to return only its base dividend to shareholders in 2025 and 2026, using additional free cash flow for other disbursements. At an iron ore price of $100 per ton, UBS projects Vale’s free cash flow yield for 2025 to be around 3%, with an estimated dividend yield of 7%.