UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $173 price target on Hess (NYSE:HES) ahead of the company’s Q2 2025 earnings release, which could mark its final quarterly report as an independent entity pending the outcome of its merger with Chevron.

The analysts noted expectations for continued strong operational performance across Hess’s asset portfolio and highlighted positive sentiment from both event-driven and fundamental investors following recent investor meetings in London, with many leaning toward a favorable arbitration ruling in the Chevron-Hess deal.

UBS maintains its forecast for a Q3 2025 transaction close and sees the arbitration decision as the critical near-term catalyst for Hess shares, estimating a compelling 3:1 risk/reward skew based on the potential outcomes. The firm remains confident in the strategic merits of the deal and Hess’s underlying asset quality, which together underpin its bullish stance.