UBS is holding firm on its Buy rating for CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), maintaining a $290 price target as strong trading activity and favorable macro conditions support an optimistic outlook.

Following CME’s March trading update, UBS revised its first-quarter 2025 EPS forecast upward to $2.78, from a prior estimate of $2.71, outpacing Wall Street's $2.62 consensus. The increase is largely tied to higher-than-expected futures volumes, especially within equities and interest rate products.

While the firm adjusted pricing assumptions slightly lower—cutting revenue per contract (RPC) by 2% due to softer equity pricing—UBS anticipates additional support from equity income through the S&P index joint venture and increased interest income from higher Fed balances.

UBS sees market volatility, fueled by rate uncertainty, tariff policy debates, and geopolitical tensions, as a potential catalyst for even greater trading volumes ahead.

Currently, the company’s shares are up around 3% intra-day.